Prediction method for North Pacific Ocean squid resource replenishment quantity

Abstract

A prediction method for North Pacific Ocean squid resource replenishment quantity is characterized by comprising following steps: selecting marine environment factors of sea water having high correlation as correlative factors of foraging habitat environment influencing squid resource replenishment quantity by means of the correlation between the time series formed by sea environment factors in a foraging field in foraging months and a CPUE time series of this year; selecting marine environment factors of sea water having high correlation as correlative factors of spawning habitat environment influencing resource replenishment quantity by means of the correlation between the time series formed by sea environment factors in a spawning field in spawning months and a CPUE time series of the next year; Using the ratio of the suitable surface water temperature range to the total area in the spawning months of spawning fields and the ratio of the suitable surface water temperature range to the total area in the foraging area, the habitat environment suitable degree of the spawning fields and the foraging fields are expressed by PS and PF; Using selected environment factors and different combinations of PS and PF, establishing a BP network configuration prediction model and selecting the optimal models for medium and long term fishery condition prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for medium and long-term forecasting of fishery conditions, in particular to a method for forecasting the replenishment of squid resources in the North Pacific Ocean. Background technique [0002] Forecasting of resource replenishment is a kind of medium and long-term forecast of fishery situation. Accurate forecasting of resource replenishment is the key to scientific management and rational development of fishery. The pelagic economic catfish is a species with a short life cycle. Although it has a strong self-regulation ability, it can respond to changes in the marine environment in a short period of time and quickly adapt to such changes. The impact of resource replenishment is still significant. Studies have shown that the most important factor affecting the replenishment of oceanic commercial catfish resources is environmental factors. Therefore, the current forecast research on its resource replenishment is als...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the environmental factors selected in previous studies are relatively single, and the forecast models established are also simple linear models.

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