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Method and system for forecasting investment demand of grid

A forecasting method and power grid technology, applied in forecasting, information technology support systems, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as lack of pertinence and inability to invest in forecasting, and achieve the effect of strengthening control and improving efficiency

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-04-20
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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  • Claims
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, China considers few influencing factors for power grid investment demand forecasting, and cannot fully consider the impact of various factors on investment, and cannot make investment forecasts by region and lacks pertinence. Influenced by various factors, it is urgent to arrange the investment and distribution of grid investment in a targeted, scientific and rational manner

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  • Method and system for forecasting investment demand of grid
  • Method and system for forecasting investment demand of grid
  • Method and system for forecasting investment demand of grid

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Embodiment Construction

[0033] The present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. However, it should be understood that the accompanying drawings are provided only for better understanding of the present invention, and they should not be construed as limiting the present invention.

[0034] Such as figure 1 As shown, the prediction method of the power grid investment demand provided by the present invention specifically includes the following contents:

[0035] 1. From the five aspects of a regional power grid company’s production and demand, equipment, operation, regional power generation, and economic and social development, select variable sequences that affect power grid investment (PGI), including Electricity Sales (ES) ), total electricity consumption sequence (Total Electricity Consumption, or TEC), 35 kV and above transmission line length sequence (L), 35 kV and above transformation capacity sequence (T), power grid company total asset sequ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method and a system for forecasting the investment demand of a grid. The forecasting method comprises the following steps: 1) selecting variable sequences that have the co-integration relationship and significance and influence the grid investment, and establishing a grid investment demand long-term equilibrium model in advance; 2) solving the grid investment demand long-term equilibrium model to obtain a long-term equilibrium relationship between the grid investment sequence and the corresponding variable sequence; 3) performing the Granger causality test to obtaina causal relationship between the grid investment sequence and the corresponding variable sequence; 4 ) performing the vector error correction test to obtain the corresponding grid investment change amount; and 5) performing logarithm inverse transformation on the grid investment change amount corresponding to each variable sequence, and combining the grid power investment base value of the previous year to obtain the corresponding current-year grid investment short-term adjustment value of each variable sequence. The method and the system can be widely used in the power system grid investmentquantitative evaluation technology.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a forecasting method and a forecasting system for grid investment demand, and belongs to the technical field of quantitative evaluation of grid investment in power systems. Background technique [0002] With the development of China's economy, the growth rate of China's electric power continues to slow down, and the operating pressure faced by the State Grid Corporation of China continues to increase. The most important decision-making content in the company's investment decision-making is related to the company's sustainable development ability and growth potential. The social economy and power grid development in various regions of China are at different stages, and there are significant differences in investment needs and benefits, and the investment calculations of power grid companies in various regions will also be affected by many factors such as society, economy, energy, power grids, and users. Factors are intertwined,...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 潘尔生韩丰赵朗李晖彭冬张鹏飞王智冬龙望成薛雅玮王雪莹王虓
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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