Prediction Method of Urban Power Grid Saturation Load Based on Principal Component Analysis and Verhulst Model

Abstract

A method for forecasting urban power grid saturated load based on principal component analysis and Verhulst model. Screen the factors affecting the load change; use principal component analysis for feature extraction to obtain the principal components of the factors affecting the load change; use the multivariate model to describe the relationship between the load and each Analyze the development law of the factors that affect the load change, and get the future annual development trend of each factor that affects the load change; Substitute the future annual development trend data of each factor that affects the load change into the correlation model, and get the total urban network load in the future Change trend; according to the future annual load growth, determine the saturation time of the total load out of the city network, the starting point value of the saturation stage and the saturation extreme value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of saturated load prediction in urban distribution network planning, and relates to a method for predicting urban power grid saturated load based on principal component analysis and Verhulst model. Background technique [0002] Urban power grid saturation load forecasting is the basis of long-term urban distribution network planning, and it has great guiding significance for economical and reasonable power grid construction. According to the relevant regulations on the determination of saturated load in the "Technical Guidelines for Distribution Network Planning and Design" (DL / T 5729-2016), that is, according to the load saturation with a load growth rate of less than 2% or an electricity growth rate of less than 1% for five consecutive years When the regional economic and social level develops to a certain stage, the growth of power consumption slows down and remains relatively stable on the whole, and the load is s...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In order to make the constructed model more reasonable, consider the factors more comprehensively, and predict the results more accurately, today’s urban power grid saturated load forecasting methods are often carried out by proposing an improved model or constructing a combined forecasting model, but with the process of saturated load forecasting With the continuous increase of factors considered, while the forecasting effect is continuously improved, the following two problems also appear. One is the multicollinearity problem among factors that occurs due to the increase in factors considered when constructing the load forecasting model; the other is When determining the saturated load, since the factors affecting the load change cannot reach the saturation value at the same time, it does not mean that the factors affecting the load change also enter the saturation stage when the load enters the saturation stage. In the past, the load entered the saturation stage according to the factors affecting the load change. stage analysis ideas, most of the forecast results lag behind

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