Minisatellite and its constellation availability evaluation method based on Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

A minisatellite and its constellation availability evaluation method based on Monte Carlo simulation. The method includes following steps: 1, acquiring a fault list of faults of classes I and II in severity of classes I and II through FMEA analysis; dividing the faults in the list according to whether the faults are repairable or not; 2, for the repairable faults, utilizing the Poisson process tomodel fault laws, utilizing on-orbit data to calculate repairable fault failure rate, determining parameters of the Poisson process; for unrepairable faults, utilizing the Wiener process to model thefault laws, and utilizing ground test data or on-orbit failure data to determine parameters of the Wiener process; 3, determining minisatellite fault criteria and constellation fault criteria, and performing availability simulation on a minisatellite and its constellation; 4, through a simulation result, calculating a ratio of on-orbit normal working duration to service life of the minisatellite,and calculating on-orbit availability of the minisatellite and its constellation. By the method, complexity of availability evaluation can be effectively reduced while minisatellite availability evaluation result accuracy is ensured.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a small satellite and a constellation availability evaluation method. Background technique [0002] Small satellite availability simulation, based on the small satellite equipment failure model, simulates the occurrence and repair process of small satellite on-orbit failures, which is used to simulate and verify the on-orbit operation status of small satellites and constellations. [0003] At present, the research on the availability of satellites and constellations at home and abroad adopts the method of first defining the satellite state, using the Markov model to model the state transition mode of the satellite and constellation, and incorporating the state transition matrix of the Markov model into The state transition probability of is set to an exponential distribution, and then the satellite availability is obtained by solving the sum of the probability values ​​of each available state. However, this method has the foll...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0007] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is: to overcome the problem that the Markov method cannot accurately evaluate the satellite availability in the calculation of the existing satellite availability, the present invention provides a small satellite based on Monte Carlo simulation and Its constellation availability evaluation method overcomes the shortcomings that the fault law cannot be accurately described when the Markov method is used to calculate the availability of small satellites and cannot be calculated when the modeling complexity is too high, and solves the problem of single failure law description and state modeling For complex problems, it has the advantages of accurate and convenient availability modeling and credible evaluation results

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