A method for predicting trend of regional geological hazards

A technology for geological hazard and trend forecasting, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as a wide range of regions, difficult to quantify, and complex influencing factors

Active Publication Date: 2018-12-25
中国地质环境监测院
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Problems solved by technology

Due to the long prediction time span, wide area, complex and difficult to quantify influencing factors, the current prediction of geological disaster t

Method used

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experiment example

[0056] According to the statistical data of ten years of geological disasters, the occurrence law of geological disasters is counted, and the number of geological disasters in 2017 is predicted to be 7190 according to the linear law; the main types of disasters are landslides, landslides and debris flows, and the number of predicted landslides is 5529, and the number of collapses is 1028. The number of mudslides was 510; geological disasters are predicted to occur mainly during the main flood season (June-August), with the most geological disasters occurring in June, followed by July and August.

[0057] Combining the zoning of the national geological hazard potential degree and the predicted change trend of the main triggering factors (climate, earthquake, human engineering activities, etc.) in 2017, the spatial distribution of the occurrence trend of geological hazards is predicted, and the calculation formula applies the following formula 2:

[0058] T=0.5x 1 +0.2x 2 +0.15...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a regional geological hazard trend prediction method, comprising the following steps: inferring and analyzing the occurrence law of the geological hazard; setting a predictioncalculation unit, a prediction period and a prediction period; according to the occurrence of geological hazards in many years and the statistical regularity of geological environmental factors such as slope height, slope degree, rock and soil mass type, geological structure and so on, at the same time, the influence of different geological hazards being analyzed based on the historical data of geological hazards, and the value being assigned quantitatively; finally, after the end of the prediction period, the prediction results being checked according to the actual situation of geological hazards, the reasons of prediction deviation being analyzed, and the parameters being assigned by feedback and correction, so as to optimize the prediction model. On the basis of geological environment conditions, considering the main influencing factors such as climate, earthquake and human engineering activities, the occurrence trend of geological disasters, such as the number of geological disasters, the period of high occurrence, the key areas and the main types, can be accurately predicted quantitatively, so as to provide support for the deployment of geological disasters prevention.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of disaster prevention and mitigation of geological disasters, in particular to a method for predicting regional geological disaster trends. Background technique [0002] Geological disasters occur frequently in my country, posing serious threats to human settlements, transportation, water conservancy and hydropower, and industrial factories and mines. At present, the research on short-term early warning and forecasting of geological disasters is very in-depth. On the basis of early warning and forecasting, many geological disasters can be avoided, avoiding a large number of casualties and property losses. However, it is not enough just to avoid disasters. It is more important to deploy geological disaster prevention and mitigation work in advance, formulate prevention and control plans, and take precautions in advance. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out long-term trend predictions for geological disasters in lar...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/265
Inventor 温铭生陈春利方志伟徐为
Owner 中国地质环境监测院
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