Multi-point photovoltaic output probability prediction method and system based on the Pair-copula theory

Abstract

The invention provides a multi-point photovoltaic output probability prediction method based on a Pair-copula theory. The method comprises the steps of: performing cluster analysis on a target photovoltaic power station group to determine the optimal number for classification; performing statistics of the photovoltaic output values of various power stations and a photovoltaic power station total output value to obtain a probability density function and a cumulative distribution function respectively; performing parameter identification of a two-dimensional Copula function for the output of various power stations and the total output to obtain a series of partial correlation coefficients; solving a related coefficient of a Pair-copula function according to a formula; and employing the determined Pair-copula model and the prediction value of the photovoltaic output of each power station to obtain multi-point distributed photovoltaic joint output condition probability distribution. The clustering analysis theory is introduced to classify the photovoltaic power stations. Based on the Pair-copula theory, a conditional probability prediction model of the joint output is established to solve the problem of multi-point distributed photovoltaic combined output prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation, in particular to a multi-point photovoltaic output probability prediction method and system based on Pair-copula theory. Background technique [0002] With the promulgation of encouraging policies for photovoltaic power generation, the improvement of the efficiency of photovoltaic cell components, the progress of technology and the reduction of raw material costs, the construction cost of photovoltaic power generation units is gradually decreasing, and my country's photovoltaic power generation industry has developed rapidly. Since 2009, my country has actively promoted the market-oriented development of photovoltaic power generation, making my country the fastest growing country in the world for photovoltaic power generation. Among them, distributed photovoltaic is an important form of photovoltaic power generation due to its flexible construction scale, simple inst...

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Problems solved by technology

To sum up, domestic and foreign research on photovoltaic output forecasting mainly improves the model through algorithm optimization, ignoring the importance of screening original data, and there is a bottleneck in improving forecasting accuracy; related research mainly focuses on single-point photovoltaic output forecasting. There is a lack of research on the prediction of multi-point photovoltaic joint output

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