High-speed railway train operation late time prediction method

Abstract

The invention provides a high-speed railway train operation late time prediction method. The method comprises the steps of obtaining a historical data set; selecting a training data set and a test data set by using a Bootstrapping strategy to obtain r weak learners integrated with a random weight neural network model; using a Weighted Voting combined strategy so that the strong learning device Bagging-RVFLNs prediction model is obtained; using the strong learning device Bagging-RVFLNs prediction model and predicting the predicted high-speed railway trains for a given late time and late station, and acquiring the delay prediction time; using the strong learning Bagging-RVFLNs prediction model to predict the late time of the next station or interval, and obtain a new late prediction time; ifyou need to further improve the operation speed of the late time prediction method, using online sequential integrated random weight neural network The network model replaces the strong learning device Bagging-RVFLNs prediction model. the invention uses the integrated learning random weight neural network to realize real-time prediction of the high-speed train late time, and the prediction accuracy is high, which provides assistance for the scheduling work of the high-speed railway dispatcher.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of dispatching of high-speed railways, and in particular relates to a method for predicting the running delay time of high-speed railway trains. Background technique [0002] The high-speed, high-density, and high-safety operating characteristics of high-speed railways make them one of the most important ways of railway passenger transportation in my country. my country's daily high-speed passenger trains account for more than half of all passenger trains, and undertake important transportation tasks. However, trains will be delayed during operation, which will affect the travel of passengers, lead to a decrease in service quality, and affect the completion of normal railway transportation tasks. In serious cases, it will cause huge losses. Therefore, it is very necessary to ensure the safe and punctual operation of high-speed trains. [0003] The operation of high-speed trains is a dynamic process. During the operat...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, according to the existing train delay prediction method, when the train is delayed, only a rough estimate of the delay time can be given, and the development and recovery of the delay are not considered. The delay time prediction given by this method is very inaccurate

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