Different-forecast-period area crop ETc prediction and forecast method

A technology of foreseeing period and crops, applied in botanical equipment and methods, weather condition prediction, measuring devices, etc., can solve problems such as low reliability and prediction uncertainty, and achieve the goal of reducing uncertainty and high prediction accuracy Effect

Active Publication Date: 2019-11-26
CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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  • Description
  • Claims
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] For this reason, the embodiment of the present invention provides a method for forecasting ETc of regional crops in different forecast periods, so as to solve the problems in the prior art that the method of directly obtaining regional-scale ETc is the spatial difference method and its application, regional ET spatial difference research, distribution Uncertainty and low reliability of the predictions caused by estimating the regional ET by using the hydrological model method and estimating the regional ET by remote sensing

Method used

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  • Different-forecast-period area crop ETc prediction and forecast method

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Embodiment 1

[0043] Such as figure 1 A kind of regional crop ETc forecasting and forecasting method with different forecast period shown, comprises model construction system and model application system, and described model construction system is used for collecting MODIS data, and constructs SEBS model, and described model application system is used for according to SEBS model, Correct the crop ETc in real time and predict the regional ETc. The SEBS model is constructed based on ground albedo, surface temperature, vegetation cover index and leaf area index. The eddy correlation system is set as an eddy correlator. The connecting end of the vorticity correlator is provided with a large-aperture scintillator, and the connecting end of the eddy correlator is also provided with satellite remote sensing. scale, the specific steps of the prediction method are as follows:

[0044] Step 1: Calculate ET by PM method based on historical meteorological data 0 , the PM method is the Penman formula ...

Embodiment 2

[0067] Such as Figure 2-5 As shown, in this embodiment, the historical data of winter wheat and summer corn in Daxing District, Beijing, 2014-2015 are used for model modeling and forecast calculation, and the data in the selected section of the data are processed, and the measured ETc of 1d, 1d and 15d are respectively taken Record and draw the waveform diagram with the predicted value of ETc under this method, the result shows:

[0068] The actual value of ETc in the growth period of winter wheat in 2014 is basically consistent with the predicted value of ETc in different forecast periods, and the actual value of ETc in this time period all falls within the predicted value;

[0069] The actual value of ETc in the growing period of summer maize in 2014 is basically consistent with the predicted value of ETc in different forecast periods, and the actual value of ETc in this time period all falls within the predicted value;

[0070] The actual value of ETc in the growth period...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a different-forecast-period area crop ETc prediction and forecast method. ET0 is calculated by adopting a standard method Penman formula based on meteorological data, a crop ETc is acquired according to a vorticity correlator, and further a crop coefficient Kc is acquired on the basis of an FAO-56 single crop coefficient method. Therefore, in a 1d prediction period of the Etc, the ETc of a (n-1)th day is acquired according to the ET0 of an nth day and the crop coefficient Kc of the (n-1)th day, and the ETc of the nth day is acquired according to the ET0 of the (n+1)th day and Kc of the nth day; and in a 2d prediction period of the ETc, the ETc of a (n-2)th day is acquired according to the ET0 of the nth day and the crop coefficient Kc of the (n-2)th day and the ETcof the nth day is acquired according to the ET0 of the (n+2)th day and the Kc of the nth day. And crop ETc prediction values of different prediction periods are obtained in the same way. Subsequently,remote sensing data is used for improving a regional scale, the method can be used to reduce an influence of uncertainty of weather forecast data on ET0 prediction, and heterogeneity of the ETc of regional crops can be accurately obtained.

Description

technical field [0001] Embodiments of the present invention relate to the field of agricultural irrigation forecasting, and more specifically, the present invention relates to a method for forecasting ETc of regional crops in different forecast periods. Background technique [0002] Crop water demand information is an indispensable basic data in irrigation management and evaluation of efficient agricultural water use. In different temporal and spatial scales, the main factors affecting crop narratives such as climate, topography, crop growth, and soil moisture are random and uncertain, making crop water requirements show strong spatial heterogeneity. Therefore, how to use the existing crop water demand information monitoring data, adopt new theories or methods to study the spatial distribution of crop water demand, reveal the different forms of crop water demand space, seek the turning points of different spatial scales, and conduct crop water demand information monitoring s...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G01N21/17G01N21/55G01N33/00G01W1/02A01G25/00
CPCA01G25/00G01N21/17G01N21/55G01N33/0098G01N2021/1793G01W1/02G01W1/10Y02A90/10
Inventor 陈鹤魏征韩信李益农张宝忠蔡甲冰彭致功潘岩谢天慧
Owner CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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