Method and device for determining error source of numerical weather prediction model

Abstract

The present application provides a method and device for determining error sources of a numerical weather prediction model, which relate to the field of numerical weather prediction. The method includes: determining the satellite observation area, and the simulation area corresponding to the satellite observation area in the numerical weather prediction mode; obtaining the radiation value of the satellite observation area at the current moment, and the numerical weather prediction mode. Atmospheric parameters in the simulated area; according to the preset upward radiation formula of the top layer of the atmosphere, the sensitivity of the radiation value to the atmospheric parameter is determined, and the sensitivity is the magnitude of change of the radiation value when the atmospheric parameter changes; based on The sensitivities determine error source characteristics of the atmospheric parameters for characterizing a distribution of error sources for the atmospheric parameters in the modeled region. The error source characteristics of atmospheric parameters can be determined through the influence range of atmospheric parameter changes on radiation values, so that the deviation characteristics of atmospheric parameters can be estimated.

Description

technical field [0001] The present application relates to the technical field of numerical weather prediction, in particular, to a method and device for determining error sources of a numerical weather prediction model. Background technique [0002] In the prior art, since the brightness temperature observed by meteorological satellites is not the same physical quantity as the predicted quantity of the meteorological numerical weather prediction model, direct quantitative comparison cannot be made. At present, two schemes are usually adopted to test the forecast products of the numerical model of satellite brightness temperature data: the meteorological numerical model product is calculated into the satellite radiation value through the radiation transfer model, and compared with the satellite observed radiation value, reflecting the forecast deviation of the radiation value, but cannot It accurately reflects the specific deviation of the meteorological model; using the imag...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In view of this, the purpose of the embodiment of the present application is to provide a method and device for determining the error source of the numerical weather prediction model to solve the problem in the prior art that the deviation characteristics of the atmospheric parameters in the numerical weather prediction model cannot be estimated

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