Load identification method of baseline load model based on Bayesian classification method

Abstract

The invention relates to a load identification method for a baseline load model based on a Bayesian classification method, and the method comprises the following steps: 1, determining whether any twogiven user characteristic quantities are in statistical correlation or not, and eliminating redundant characteristic quantities; 2, forming a training set by the user characteristic quantities which are subjected to judgment and statistics correlation and are subjected to redundant characteristic quantity elimination; 3, calculating a prior probability for each data category in the training set, and further obtaining a corresponding Bayesian probability; 4, calculating the baseline load of the prediction day by combining the Bayesian probability with the power load of the prediction day; and 5, identifying the peak shifting potential load by utilizing the obtained baseline load. Compared with the prior art, the method has the advantages that the single predicted daily baseline load is avoided, the peak shifting potential load cannot be identified, the data diversity is high, and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grid staggered dispatching, in particular to a load identification method based on a baseline load model of a Bayesian classification method. Background technique [0002] At present, the imbalance between power supply and demand in my country is mainly manifested in structural and periodical power shortages, and the proportion of peak load time is relatively small. Traditional measures such as increasing installed capacity can easily lead to increased grid investment and waste of installed capacity during low-peak load periods. To solve the shortage of peak load supply and periodical power shortage, power companies must do a good job in peak shift scheduling to maximize the effectiveness of limited energy resources. Peak shift dispatching is still a normalized management work to accommodate the gap between supply and demand, control electricity demand, and maintain a stable order of electricity supp...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] With the intensification of the contradiction between power supply and demand and the rapid changes in the power consumption structure of users, the characteristics of power loads in various regions have undergone major changes, such as the continuous and rapid growth of the maximum load, the continuous expansion of the peak-to-valley difference, the continuous increase in the load rate and the annual maximum load utilization hours. The decline and the increasingly sharp contradiction between supply and demand during the peak period have made it increasingly difficult for the power grid to adjust the peak, causing power cuts and staggered peak power consumption to occur frequently across the country, which has led to an increase in the failure rate of the power grid, and at the same time makes electricity users more concerned about the power supply. The reliability of electricity, the quality of electric energy and the service requirements of the power supply industry are constantly improving, which poses a great threat to the safe and stable economic operation of the power system, and also brings many difficulties to the analysis and forecasting, planning and marketing of the power market.

On the other hand, due to the slow progress of my country's electric power reform, basic work such as power market research, load characteristic analysis, and power load optimization control research that is increasingly important to the operation and planning of power companies has not been fully and effectively carried out. A benign interaction mechanism has not been formed between enterprises and electricity customers, and there is a lack of effective cooperation and communication between the two, which has caused certain difficulties to the operation of the power system and the daily management of power supply enterprises

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