Power transmission line joint fault probability calculation method based on environment dependent failure

Abstract

The invention discloses a power transmission line joint fault probability calculation method based on environment dependent failure. The power transmission line joint fault probability calculation method is characterized by considering uncertainty and randomness of a power grid operation mode and a climate state at the same time; obtaining power grid operation data through a power grid energy management system EMS; when the uncertainty of a power grid operation mode is considered, mainly introducing the uncertainty operation state of a line; when the uncertainty of the climate state is considered, mainly introducing the uncertainty state of the climate; and assuming that a load is a deterministic load, that is to say, there is no relationship with the probability of environment-dependent failure of the power transmission line, calculating the probability of environment-dependent failure when the line passes through regions with different weather conditions (assuming that the weather conditions of two adjacent regions are different) on the basis of probability analysis, and providing necessary technical support for determining the reliability of the power transmission line.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electric power system and its automation, in particular to a method for calculating joint failure probability of transmission lines based on environment-dependent failure. Background technique [0002] Many overhead lines may be exposed to harsh, even catastrophic environments. Harsh environment usually refers to unsuitable weather conditions like windy, rainy, snowy, etc., while catastrophic environment refers to natural disasters such as blizzards, tornadoes, fires, floods, earthquakes, etc. Any severe weather conditions or storm damage will greatly increase the probability of failure of all exposed transmission lines. Although this occurs infrequently and for a short duration, during this period the probability of component failure increases significantly and overlapping failures of multiple transmission lines or failure of entire subsystems may occur. Essentially, context dependency failure means th...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] For the failure probability of transmission lines based on environment-dependent failure, it was usually judged and confirmed based on the occurrence probability of catastrophic environment and its influence range in the past, but this calculation method can only be roughly estimated, and it is very important to propose an accurate model for it. Difficult, moreover, this method cannot determine the number of overhead lines passing through areas with different climatic conditions

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