A regional wind power forecasting method based on climatological wind speed forecasting

Abstract

The invention provides a prediction method for regional wind power electric quantity based on climate state wind speed prediction. The method comprises the steps that wind speed prediction is conducted in a climate model; Weibull distribution parameters of wind are confirmed; the electric quantity of a single wind turbine generator set is confirmed; the wind power electric quantity of the region is confirmed. According to the prediction method for the regional wind power electric quantity based on the climate state wind speed prediction, long-term electric quantity prediction is conducted according to the climate state statistical characteristics of wind speed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method in the field of wind power generation, in particular to a regional wind power long-term electricity forecasting method based on climatological wind speed forecasting. Background technique [0002] Wind energy is one of the most important clean energy sources. It has developed rapidly around the world and has become the most mature clean energy with large-scale development and commercial value. However, the volatility and intermittency of natural wind not only impacts the safe operation of the power grid when wind power is connected to the grid, but also brings challenges to the overall planning and unified management and dispatch of thermal power, hydropower and new energy by the power sector. Therefore, through new energy power forecasting and electricity forecasting, the state of new energy output is estimated in advance, which provides a basis for estimating the grid's ability to accept wind power and coordinating t...

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Problems solved by technology

[0007] These methods are mainly aimed at short-term power forecasting, and cannot be used to analyze the long-term power supply and demand relationship in the region and long-term power supply planning; while the long-term power forecasting of wind power is mainly used for macro distribution of thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power and wind power among various power sources. configuration relationship, as well as customized long-term energy storage plans for various types of energy within the power grid. In addition, numerical weather prediction can only provide relatively accurate predictions for the weather evolution process in the next three days, and the accuracy of the forecast results beyond three days will decrease rapidly. Therefore, for In terms of long-term power forecasting with annual power and decomposed monthly power as the forecast target, it is obvious that the method based on re-integration of power forecast results cannot be used for forecasting

For weather forecasts of more than 7 days, the forecast method has changed from weather forecasts to long-term climate forecasts. Although climate forecasts cannot accurately track the specific time when weather phenomena occur, they can still accurately grasp the statistical characteristics of various meteorological elements, that is, the basic state of the climate

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