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Big data-based electricity consumption type electricity selling quantity analysis and prediction method and system

A prediction method and electricity sales technology, applied in the field of electric power, can solve problems such as insufficient actual power supply, waste of resources and costs on the power generation side, and impact on the production and life of enterprises and residents

Active Publication Date: 2020-07-31
STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER +2
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Problems solved by technology

If the predicted value of electricity sales is too large, it will lead to waste of resources and costs on the power generation side. If the predicted value of electricity sales is too small, the actual power supply will be insufficient, which will seriously affect the production and life of enterprises and residents, resulting in huge economic losses.

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  • Big data-based electricity consumption type electricity selling quantity analysis and prediction method and system
  • Big data-based electricity consumption type electricity selling quantity analysis and prediction method and system
  • Big data-based electricity consumption type electricity selling quantity analysis and prediction method and system

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Embodiment Construction

[0082] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0083] Such as figure 1 As shown, the big data-based analysis and prediction method of electricity consumption category electricity sales in this embodiment includes:

[0084] S01: Obtain electricity sales data and preprocess the data, including outlier identification and outlier processing;

[0085] There will be some abnormal points in the original electricity sales historical data, directly used for modeling will affect the generalization ability of the model, resulting in a decrease in prediction accuracy; in addition, due to changes in the economic development cycle or other influencing factors, the electricity sales trend in earlier years may There is a big difference from this year. Direct participation in modeling will affect the accuracy of forecasting trends. Therefore, it is necessary to process outliers in the original data to impr...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a big data-based electricity selling quantity analysis and prediction method and system, belongs to the technical field of electric power, and is used for solving the technicalproblems of large electricity selling quantity prediction deviation and incomplete consideration factors at present. The method comprises the steps: S01, obtaining and preprocessing electricity selling quantity data; S02, decomposing the electricity selling quantity curve to obtain a trend term, a season term and a random term; S03, introducing a preamble index, and predicting the trend term, theseason term and the random term to obtain a preliminary prediction result; S04, summing the obtained prediction results of the trend item, the season item and the random item to obtain multiple prediction results, and obtaining an optimal prediction result by adopting an analytic hierarchy process; S05, adopting the two-stage modeling for electricity sales prediction, and adjusting the predictedelectricity of a predetermined month; S06, adjusting the one-quarter electricity selling quantity by utilizing the Spring Festival factor to obtain a final prediction result. The method has the advantages of high prediction precision, accordance with actual conditions and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of electric power technology, in particular to a big data-based method and system for analyzing and predicting electricity sales by category of electricity consumption. Background technique [0002] Electricity sales forecast is an important basic work in the electricity market. Accurate electricity sales forecast is an important basis to ensure that power supply enterprises can complete their business targets and ensure the stability of social production and life. If the predicted value of electricity sales is too large, it will lead to waste of resources and costs on the power generation side. If the predicted value of electricity sales is too small, the actual power supply will be insufficient, seriously affecting the production and life of enterprises and residents, and causing huge economic losses. Therefore, realizing accurate forecasting of electricity sales not only plays an important role in supporting power ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q50/06G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q50/06G06Q10/04Y04S10/50
Inventor 黄瑞何海零邹薇吴文娴陈向群刘谋海
Owner STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER
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