Landslide displacement dynamic prediction method based on multiple influence factors

Abstract

The invention discloses a landslide displacement dynamic prediction method based on multiple influence factors. The landslide displacement dynamic prediction method is specifically implemented according to the following steps of 1, decomposing a landslide cumulative deformation displacement time curve according to a time sequence addition model; 2, extracting trend term displacement from landslidecumulative deformation displacement time curve decomposition by adopting a moving average method; 3, predicting trend term displacement by adopting a cubic polynomial; 4, selecting a main influence factor from the predicted trend term displacement by adopting a grey correlation degree sieve and taking the main influence factor as an initial input vector of a deep learning LSTM neural network model to predict the landslide periodic term displacement; and 5, according to a time sequence decomposition principle, superposing the predicted values of the displacement sub-sequences to obtain a finalpredicted value of the displacement, thereby finishing the dynamic prediction of the landslide displacement, and solving the problem that information at a long ago moment cannot be reserved in the prior art.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of landslide displacement prediction and relates to a dynamic prediction method for landslide displacement based on multiple influencing factors. Background technique [0002] Landslide disasters seriously threaten the safety of the country and the people, so landslide prediction and early warning is particularly important. Displacement, as a macroscopic characterization of landslide hazards, has long been a hotspot in landslide prediction and forecasting by scholars at home and abroad. At present, there are mainly methods for displacement prediction: 1) Decompose the cumulative deformation displacement of observation points in the study area into trend displacement affected by internal factors and periodic displacement or fluctuating displacement affected by external factors, and model them respectively Prediction, and finally add the above two prediction values ​​to get the cumulative displacement predict...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a dynamic prediction method for landslide displacement based on multi-influencing factors, which solves the problem in the prior art that the information at a long time cannot be preserved

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