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A fast prediction method for rainstorm and waterlogging events

A forecasting method and rainstorm technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as shortening the time for waterlogging risk forecasting, achieve fast calculation speed, high forecasting accuracy, and meet large demand effects

Active Publication Date: 2021-10-29
CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES
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  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Compared with the actual waterlogging monitoring data and numerical simulation results, the prediction results of this method have very small errors, which can effectively replace the numerical simulation prediction results, greatly shorten the time for waterlogging risk prediction, and effectively solve the timeliness of urban waterlogging prediction and early warning question

Method used

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  • A fast prediction method for rainstorm and waterlogging events
  • A fast prediction method for rainstorm and waterlogging events
  • A fast prediction method for rainstorm and waterlogging events

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Experimental program
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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0055] Such as figure 1 As shown, step 100 is executed to obtain multiple types of rainfall processes. The rainfall process includes the short-duration heavy rainfall process, the characteristic rainfall process of different temporal and spatial distributions, and the design rainfall process designed according to the rainstorm intensity formula, among which: the short-duration heavy rainfall process is the short-duration heavy rain process within 3 hours of the actual rainfall duration ; The characteristic rainfall process of different temporal and spatial distributions is the rainfall process that conforms to the characteristics of different types of spatial and temporal distribution and the cumulative rainfall of a single station in 3 hours is from 30 mm to 500 mm; 30mm to 500mm Chicago rain pattern rainfall process.

[0056] Execute step 110 to construct a refined urban flood simulation model, which consists of a one-dimensional river network model, a two-dimensional surf...

Embodiment 2

[0078] This paper combines the traditional numerical simulation model with neural network technology, and proposes a new method for predicting urban waterlogging risk. Taking the Hewan area of ​​Shenzhen as an example, this method is used to simulate and predict the process of rainstorm waterlogging. The results show that the prediction results of this method have very small errors compared with the measured water accumulation monitoring data and numerical simulation results, which can effectively replace the prediction results of numerical simulation, greatly shorten the time for waterlogging risk prediction, and effectively solve the problem of urban waterlogging prediction and early warning timeliness issues.

[0079] The Hewan River Basin in Shenzhen is one of the five major river basins in Shenzhen. It is a typical area of ​​rapid development in Shenzhen. The underlying surface has a high degree of hardening, the confluence time is short, and the construction of drainage f...

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Abstract

The present invention provides a rapid prediction method for rainstorm and waterlogging events, which includes acquiring multiple types of rainfall processes, and further comprising the following steps: constructing a refined model for urban flood simulation; and using the multiple types of rainfall processes to simulate the urban floods The refined model is checked to obtain rainstorm-waterlogging samples; 90% of the rainstorm-waterlogging samples are used to construct a neural network model for each water accumulation point, and the neural network model is trained; The network model predicts the water accumulation process that does not participate in the model training; by calculating the coefficient of determination between the predicted data and the simulated data R 2 to judge the similarity of the prediction results. The rapid prediction method for rainstorm and waterlogging events proposed by the present invention combines traditional numerical simulation models with artificial neural networks, and generates a large number of rainstorm-waterlogging samples under different rainfall conditions through the numerical simulation model, and uses the samples to generate Train BP neural network water accumulation prediction model.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of water conservancy engineering, in particular to a rapid prediction method for rainstorm and waterlogging events. Background technique [0002] With the change of global climate and environment, the frequency of extreme rainfall is getting higher and higher, and urban waterlogging disasters occur frequently. With the rapid development of cities, the population and urban economy have become more and more concentrated, and the losses caused by extreme precipitation and its associated secondary disasters have also been multiplied. Many cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Wuhan Larger flood disasters have occurred, and heavy rainstorms in cities have become the main disasters that affect my country's urban construction and normal life. Urban flood prevention and control has important scientific value and strategic significance for ensuring national water security and supporting sustainable social ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/11G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/26G06N3/04
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/067G06Q50/265G06N3/045Y02A10/40
Inventor 刘媛媛刘业森臧文斌李敏柴福鑫刘舒郑敬伟
Owner CHINA INST OF WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER RES