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Method for predicting power demand based on random forest model optimized by bat algorithm

A technology of random forest model and bat algorithm, which is applied in calculation model, load forecasting and forecasting in communication network, etc. It can solve the problems that affect the prediction accuracy of the model, and it is difficult to find the overfitting of hyperparameters, so as to achieve the effect of high prediction accuracy

Pending Publication Date: 2021-12-31
XINGTAI POWER SUPPLY +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The present invention aims to solve the problems that the hyperparameters of the traditional electricity consumption forecasting model are difficult to find and is prone to overfitting, which affects the prediction accuracy of the model, and provides a method for predicting electricity demand based on the random forest model optimized by the bat algorithm

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  • Method for predicting power demand based on random forest model optimized by bat algorithm
  • Method for predicting power demand based on random forest model optimized by bat algorithm
  • Method for predicting power demand based on random forest model optimized by bat algorithm

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Embodiment Construction

[0099] The technical solutions of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and through specific implementation methods.

[0100] Wherein, the accompanying drawings are only for illustrative purposes, showing only schematic diagrams, rather than physical drawings, and should not be construed as limitations on this patent; in order to better illustrate the embodiments of the present invention, some parts of the accompanying drawings will be omitted, Enlargement or reduction does not represent the size of the actual product; for those skilled in the art, it is understandable that certain known structures and their descriptions in the drawings may be omitted.

[0101] In the drawings of the embodiments of the present invention, the same or similar symbols correspond to the same or similar components; , "inner", "outer" and other indicated orientations or positional relationships are based on the orientations or positional ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting a power demand by a random forest model based on bat algorithm optimization. The method comprises the steps: transmitting a parameter value of a random forest model hyper-parameter to a bat algorithm, and enabling the parameter value to serve as an initial parameter value of a corresponding bat algorithm parameter; initializing a bat algorithm; taking minimization of the model prediction loss as a bat algorithm optimization target, carrying out iteration on the bat algorithm, and screening out parameter values of bat algorithm parameters when the model prediction loss is lower than threshold loss; scaling the parameter values of the bat algorithm parameters into the parameter value range of the corresponding random forest model hyper-parameters to serve as the optimal parameters for training the random forest model; and training with the optimal parameters to obtain a random forest model, and predicting the output power consumption demand by taking the power consumption influence factors as model input. The random forest model obtained by using the bat algorithm optimization has higher power consumption demand prediction precision. The invention further discloses a power grid investment income analysis method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electricity demand prediction, in particular to a method for predicting electricity demand based on a bat algorithm-optimized random forest model. Background technique [0002] Grid infrastructure construction is of great significance to promote social and economic development. With the rapid development of the economy, the electricity consumption of industrial enterprises in various regions has increased significantly, and the electricity demand of residents has also continued to grow. In order to cope with the rising electricity demand, the investment scale of the power grid should also increase synchronously. Power grid construction planning can easily lead to excess or insufficient grid investment scale. Moreover, power grid construction projects have huge investment, long construction period, and slow returns. They are typical capital-intensive and technology-intensive projects. An unreasonable inve...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q30/02G06Q50/06G06N3/00H02J3/00
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q30/0283G06Q50/06G06N3/006H02J3/003Y02P80/10Y04S10/50Y04S50/14
Inventor 王文宾靳伟李会彬郑永强韩胜峰李征徐华博唐超谷莹韩天华白莉妍卫丹董小虎韩秀娟范曾郭彬张俊钟成路鹏程李彦龙
Owner XINGTAI POWER SUPPLY
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