[0012] The technical solution of the present invention will be further described in detail below according to the drawings of the specification and in conjunction with specific embodiments.
[0013] See figure 1 , figure 1 The flow chart of the risk assessment method for the wind-solar-storage combined power generation system provided by the present invention includes the following steps:
[0014] Step S10: Obtain reliability statistics of the wind-solar energy storage combined power generation system, and calculate the reliability parameters of the main equipment according to the reliability statistics;
[0015] Step S20, establishing a reliability model, a power generation model, and a load model;
[0016] Step S30: Obtain the power time series, operating state time series, and load time series of the wind-solar combined power generation system;
[0017] Step S40, calculating the risk of power generation loss and the risk of missing system auxiliary services of the wind-solar-storage combined power generation system;
[0018] Step S50: Obtain the comprehensive risk of the wind-solar-storage combined power generation system.
[0019] In step S10, the reliability statistical data of the wind-solar-storage combined power generation system can be obtained by collecting the reliability statistical data of the main equipment for a period of time, which can be 1 year, 2 years, or multiple years. In this embodiment, the The time period is 1 year. The main equipment includes components such as wind turbines, photovoltaic panels, inverters, and energy storage equipment. The reliability statistics mainly include the number of equipment, the number of failures, the time of failure, the number of planned maintenance, and the planned maintenance time. Through calculation and analysis of reliability statistics, reliability parameters such as outage rate and repair rate of main equipment can be obtained. It can be understood that the main equipment and reliability parameters can be adjusted according to the actual conditions of the wind and solar storage system.
[0020] In step S20, the reliability model can be established according to the reliability parameters, by establishing a two-state model of operation-outage of wind turbines, photovoltaics, and energy storage equipment, and using the outage rate and repair rate as the state transition Rate, establish the reliability model. Specifically, for a single power generation equipment (such as a wind turbine, a photovoltaic unit, or an energy storage unit), the state transition between the operation and shutdown states is obtained from the equipment failure rate, failure repair time, overhaul rate, and overhaul time Rate, namely outage rate and repair rate. Combining the operation-outage states of the power generation equipment can obtain the state transition rate between the operation-outage states of the wind and solar combined power generation system. The power generation model can establish a power generation power model based on conditions such as wind speed and sunlight at the site, combined with output parameters of wind turbines and photovoltaic systems.
[0021] The power generation model includes a wind turbine power generation model, a photovoltaic system power generation model, and an energy storage system power generation model. The wind turbine power generation model can use the Weibull distribution to establish the probability distribution of wind speed, and then the wind power generation power model; the photovoltaic system power generation model can establish the probability distribution of the radiation intensity according to the meteorological conditions and statistical data of the plant site, and then Establish a photovoltaic power generation model. The power generation power model of the energy storage system can regard the capacity of the energy storage system as a reserve capacity, and adjust the output power of the wind-solar energy storage combined power generation system through the energy storage system. The load model can obtain the probability distribution of the load by analyzing the long-term load statistical data, and then obtain the load model.
[0022] In step S30, the generating power time series, operating state time series, and load time series of the wind and solar energy storage combined power generation system can be randomly sampled by the Monte Carlo method for wind speed, light intensity, load, and wind and solar energy storage operating status obtain. Specifically, based on the reliability model, power generation model, and load model, random sampling is performed on the power generation, equipment operating status, and load of the wind-solar combined power generation system to obtain the power generation time series of wind turbines, photovoltaics, and energy storage systems. The operating state time sequence and the load time sequence are used to obtain the normal operating power generation, equipment outage capacity and load of the wind-solar combined power generation system.
[0023] In the wind-solar-storage combined power generation system, the time series of the normal operation output power of the wind turbine and photovoltaic can be obtained by the following method: applying the theory of inverse transformation method to obtain the function of wind speed and irradiance to simulate random values; The random values of and irradiance are respectively substituted into the wind power generation output model and the photovoltaic system power output model, and the time series of the normal operation output power of the wind turbine and the photovoltaic system are calculated.
[0024] Furthermore, by randomly sampling the operating status of wind turbines, photovoltaics, and energy storage using exponential distribution, the operating status time series of wind turbines, photovoltaics, and energy storage can be obtained, and the operating status time series of wind turbines, photovoltaics, and energy storage can be synthesized to obtain The time sequence of the operating state of the wind-solar-storage combined power generation system.
[0025] In step S40, see figure 2 , The risk of loss of power generation includes the risk of loss of power generation (LOEE) and the risk of insufficient power (LOLE). The power generation loss risk can be calculated according to the power time series, operating state time series, and load time series of the wind and solar energy storage combined power generation system, and each operating state is obtained by evaluating the wind and solar energy storage combined power generation system in each operating state The risk of loss of power generation. By integrating the power generation loss risk of wind turbines, photovoltaic systems, and energy storage systems in each operating state, the power generation loss risk of the wind-solar-storage combined power generation system is obtained:
[0026] (1)
[0027] among them, Represents the risk of power generation loss in the i-th operating state, Represents the load output power of the i-th operating state, Represents the output power of the fan in the i-th operating state, Indicates the output power of the photovoltaic system in the i-th operating state, Represents the output power of the energy storage system in the i-th operating state, and t represents the duration of the i-th operating state.
[0028] The said power shortage risk can use Monte Carlo method to sample the equipment outage capacity and load to calculate the power shortage risk:
[0029] (2)
[0030] Among them, T represents the total simulation time, Represents the load output power of the i-th operating state, Represents the output power of the fan in the i-th operating state, Represents the output power of the photovoltaic system in the i-th operating state, Represents the output power of the energy storage system in the i-th operating state.
[0031] The system ancillary service loss risk (SSL) can be obtained according to the severity of output power fluctuation (SGF) and the severity of deviation of the power generation plan (SGD). Specifically, the system auxiliary service loss risk SLL can be calculated by the following formula:
[0032] (3)
[0033] among them, Indicates the severity coefficient of output power fluctuation, Indicates the severity coefficient of the deviation of the power generation plan, Indicates the outage capacity of the energy storage system in the i-th operating state, Indicates the outage capacity of the wind-solar combined power generation system in the i-th operating state.
[0034] The output power fluctuation severity SGF of the wind-solar combined power generation system can be calculated based on multiple samples before the time to be evaluated:
[0035] (4)
[0036] n represents the number of samples taken, Represents the actual power of wind-solar-storage combined power generation system, Represents the average power of wind-solar-storage combined power generation system.
[0037] The severity of deviation SGD of the power generation plan of the wind-solar-storage combined power generation system can be calculated from multiple samples before the time to be evaluated:
[0038] (5)
[0039] Among them, n represents the number of samples taken, Represents the actual power of wind-solar-storage combined power generation system, Indicates the planned power generation of the wind-solar combined power generation system.
[0040] In step S50, the comprehensive risk CRV of the wind-solar-storage combined power generation system can be calculated by the following formula:
[0041] (6)
[0042] Among them, the Indicates the risk weight of power loss, the said Indicates the weight of the risk of lack of system auxiliary services, and the weight represents the degree to which the operation and maintenance personnel pay attention to the risk. Generally, the weight is 1 and can be adjusted according to the on-site situation.
[0043] The risk assessment method of wind-solar-storage combined power generation system mentioned in this application includes the risk assessment of wind, solar, and storage power generation equipment, and quantifies the risk of the auxiliary service impact of wind-solar-storage combined power generation system, and comprehensively considers the power generation For the loss, the impact of equipment failure on the power generation benefits of the three sub-power generation systems of wind, solar, and storage and the function of the overall system is fully considered, so that the quantification of the operation risk of the wind, solar and storage combined power generation system is more accurate and comprehensive.
[0044] In addition, those skilled in the art can make other changes within the spirit of the present invention. Of course, these changes made according to the spirit of the present invention should all be included in the scope of protection claimed by the present invention.
