Comprehensive urban distribution network saturated load forecasting method

A comprehensive forecasting and load forecasting technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as difficult forecasting, many influencing factors, and large time span of saturated load forecasting

Active Publication Date: 2014-01-22
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Compared with the traditional medium and long-term load forecasting, the time span of saturated load forecasting is re

Method used

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  • Comprehensive urban distribution network saturated load forecasting method
  • Comprehensive urban distribution network saturated load forecasting method
  • Comprehensive urban distribution network saturated load forecasting method

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Embodiment Construction

[0036] Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and embodiment, the present invention will be further described:

[0037] like figure 1 As shown, along with the development of the economy and the improvement of living standards, after a period of rapid growth of power load, it enters a stage of slow and gentle growth until it reaches a maximum value, at which time the corresponding load is the saturated load. According to the development law of urban power load at home and abroad, the growth trend of load shows an "S" shape.

[0038] The traditional prediction methods of saturated load mainly include the following:

[0039] 1. Electric Elasticity Coefficient Method

[0040] The proportional relationship between the development speed of the electric power industry and the national economy is usually expressed by the electricity elasticity coefficient. The so-called electricity elasticity coefficient refers to the ratio of the average annual growth rate of electricity c...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a comprehensive urban distribution network saturated load forecasting method, which can forecast a power grid saturated load value by determining a comprehensive optimal power grid saturated load forecasting model. The determination of the comprehensive optimal power grid saturated load forecasting model can boil down to the solution of the mathematical expectations of optimal and better comprehensive power grid saturated load forecasting models in order to reduce the fluctuation and randomness of the forecast result change law. The solution of the comprehensive optimal power grid saturated load forecasting model can be regarded as a probability optimization problem. The comprehensive urban distribution network saturated load forecasting method has the advantage that the method can realize the organic combination of single forecasting methods and help to reduce the affection of randomness and fluctuation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a comprehensive prediction method for saturated load of urban distribution network. Background technique [0002] With the development of the economy and the improvement of living standards, after a period of rapid growth of electric power load, it enters a stage of slow and gentle growth until it reaches a maximum value. At this time, the corresponding load is the saturated load. Saturated load is the most critical indicator to determine the final scale of power grid development in urban power grid planning, and is an important factor affecting the future healthy development of urban power grids. In order to improve the systematic, scientific and effective urban power planning, guide and promote the sustainable and rapid development of the urban power industry, plan substations and line corridors in advance, and coordinate development with various urban constructions, it is necessary to realize the saturation load on the city....

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 赵灵臣王庆单来支张圣富王发祥陈德伟孙庆森
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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