Comprehensive Prediction Method of Saturated Load in Urban Distribution Network
A comprehensive forecasting and load forecasting technology, applied in forecasting, electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, etc., can solve complex problems, many influencing factors, and difficult predictions
Active Publication Date: 2016-06-29
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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[0003] Compared with the traditional medium and long-term load forecasting, the time span of saturated load forecasting is relatively large, and it involves many and complex influencing factors, so its forecasting difficulty is also relatively large.
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[0036] Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and embodiment the present invention will be further described:
[0037] Such as figure 1 As shown, with the development of the economy and the improvement of living standards, the power load increases rapidly for a period of time, and then enters a slow and gentle growth stage until it reaches the maximum value. At this time, the corresponding load is the saturated load. According to the development law of domestic and foreign urban power loads, the growth and change trend of load presents an "S" shape.
[0038] Traditional forecasting methods for saturated load mainly include the following:
[0039] 1. Electric coefficient of elasticity method
[0040] The proportional relationship between the development speed of the power industry and the national economy is usually expressed by the power elasticity coefficient. The so-called electricity elasticity coefficient refers to the ratio of the average annual growth rate of ...
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The invention discloses a method for comprehensively predicting the saturated load of an urban distribution network, which predicts the saturated load value of the power grid by determining a comprehensive optimal prediction model for the saturated load of the power grid. The determination of the comprehensive optimal forecasting model for the saturated load of the power grid can be attributed to the mathematical expectation of the optimal and better comprehensive forecasting model for the saturated load of the power grid, which is used to reduce the fluctuation and randomness of the change rule of the forecast result. The solution of the comprehensive optimal forecasting model for power grid saturated load can be regarded as a probabilistic optimization problem. Beneficial effects of the present invention: the method can realize the organic combination of each single prediction method, which is beneficial to weaken the influence of randomness and volatility.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for comprehensively predicting the saturated load of an urban distribution network. Background technique [0002] With the development of the economy and the improvement of living standards, the power load has grown rapidly for a period of time, and then enters a low-speed and gentle growth stage until it reaches the maximum value. At this time, the corresponding load is the saturated load. Saturation load is the most critical index to determine the final scale of grid development in urban grid planning, and it is an important factor affecting the future healthy development of urban grid. In order to improve the systematicness, scientificity and effectiveness of urban power planning, guide and promote the sustainable and rapid development of the urban power industry, plan ahead of time for substation distribution and line corridors, and coordinate development with various urban constructions, it is necessary to realize...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 赵灵臣王庆单来支张圣富王发祥陈德伟孙庆森
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA