Multi-model integrated aeroengine operational reliability assessment method under multiple failure modes

Abstract

The invention provides a method for evaluating operating reliability of a multi-model integrated aero-engine under multiple failure modes. The method comprises the steps of analyzing the multiple failure modes, establishing a multi-failure mode analyzing model, establishing an alternative evaluation model, judging advantages and disadvantages of each model, establishing a multi-model integrated evaluation model, analyzing the influence from the multiple failure modes to the operating reliability of the aero-engine by applying a Bayesian model averaging method, and carrying out simulation calculation on the operating reliability of the aero-engine by adopting a MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) algorithm. According to the method provided by the invention, typical failure modes, performance degradation failure, structural strength failure and outburst failure are respectively analyzed, one optimal model is selected from multiple alternative models, multiple models are integrated in one framework by applying a multi-model integration technology for evaluating the operating reliability of the aero-engine, and the evaluation accuracy of the operating reliability of the aero-engine can be increased.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of aviation safety, in particular to a multi-model integrated aero-engine operation reliability evaluation method under multiple failure modes. Background technique [0002] Accurately assessing the reliability level of aero-engine operation can provide a basis for effectively ensuring flight safety on the one hand, and provide support for making maintenance decisions on the other hand, so as to realize the organic combination of "safety" and "economy" in the operation of aero-engines. [0003] As a typical complex system, aero-engines have multiple factors affecting their reliability level during operation. The complexity of its operational reliability assessment is reflected in the following three aspects. First, multiple failure modes often coexist during the operation of aero-engines , each failure mode has a different action mechanism and variation law, which increases the difficulty of operational reliability as...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] In order to solve the problem that a single reliability evaluation model in the prior art cannot comprehensively reflect the influence of multiple failure modes on the operational reliability of aero-engines, the present invention provides a multi-model integrated aero-engine operational reliability evaluation under multiple failure modes method

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