The invention discloses a method for assessing the reliability of a main shaft of a kilometer deep shaft hoist by considering
multiple failure modes. The method comprises the steps of firstly, building a parametric three-dimensional model of the main shaft according to the structure size of the main shaft; secondly, according to a probability attribute of a random variable of the main shaft, establishing a sampling matrix of the random variable, and solving strength and stiffness response of the main shaft under the sampling matrix by using a
finite element method; thirdly, establishing an explicit function between the response and the random variable matrix by using a
neutral network method, and according to strength and
stiffness design criteria, establishing explicit functions in strength and stiffness failure
modes; fourthly, calculating two failure probabilities by using a
saddle point approximation method; and finally, building a joint
failure probability model between the two failure
modes through a Clayton copula function, and solving
system reliability under joint failure by using an interval reliability method. According to the method, the probability correlation between strength failure and stiffness failure is considered, so that the
system reliability of the main shaft of the hoist can be assessed more accurately and reasonably.