The invention discloses a train positioning analysis method and system based on Monte Carlo simulation. The method comprises the steps of initializing simulation parameters, simulating an operation scene, simulating train motion state data according to the operation scene, simulating satellite navigation information, speed sensor information, transponder position information and accelerometer information according to the train motion state data, designing a fusion algorithm, and carrying out fusion filtering processing on the simulated satellite navigation information, the speed sensor information, the transponder position information and the accelerometer information, and saving the above simulation data and results. According to the method, the test data are generated through simulation software without depending on hardware equipment, preliminary testing is carried out when system functions are not completed, the verification period of a positioning algorithm is greatly shortened, and rapid iteration of the train positioning algorithm is facilitated.