The invention discloses an equipment prediction maintenance framework based on probability residual life, and belongs to the technical field of fault prediction and health management (PHM). According to the framework, through combining a Bayesian neural network and a
reinforcement learning technology, probability prediction and
dynamic maintenance decision optimization of the residual life of equipment are realized. The method specifically comprises the following steps: acquiring sensor data in equipment operation, and preprocessing to generate a training
data set; constructing a Bayesian neural network (BNN), utilizing variation reasoning to approximate posteriori distribution, and outputting probability distribution of residual life through Monte Carlo sampling; based on a probability prediction result, constructing a
reinforcement learning environment model, and defining a
state space containing residual life distribution, a
spare part state and a maintenance action and a reward function; a Double DQN
algorithm is adopted to optimize a
maintenance strategy, and
intelligent decision-making of the
optimal maintenance time and the optimal ordering time of equipment is dynamically realized through an epsilon-
greedy algorithm, so that the maintenance cost and the fault risk are minimized. According to the method, probability residual life distribution and
reinforcement learning decision are innovatively combined, the problem that a traditional point
estimation model ignores uncertainty is solved, an intelligent maintenance framework is constructed through a reinforcement learning method, and dynamic optimization of maintenance decision is achieved. The NASA aero-engine
data set verification shows that compared with a traditional method, the optimization effects of prediction errors,
uncertainty quantification, the maintenance cost rate and the like are remarkable, and the reliability and economical efficiency of equipment are effectively balanced.