Business expansion analytical prediction system and method based on seasonal adjustment

Abstract

The invention discloses a business expansion analytical prediction system and method based on seasonal adjustment. The method comprises: firstly carrying out seasonal adjustment on the electric quantities of clients to eliminate the influence of seasonal fluctuation on an electric quantity growth trend, seeking for an inherent law of a time sequence, screening representative typical customers, and obtaining a release rule of a newly installed capacity of a client group by virtue of a principal component analysis method; and secondarily carrying out seasonal adjustment on expanded capacity and power sale quantity, respectively, and finding the month with the strongest degree of association of a trend cycle item by virtue of a gray relative analysis method to predict the power sale quantity. The system and method disclosed by the invention have the benefits that by considering that the electricity consumption of typical clients is affected by seasonal factors, the complexity of seasonal fluctuation covers the objective law in the economy development process and prediction of sequence becomes complex, the seasonable factors and other random factors are eliminated from an original sequence, so that the selected typical clients can represent the electric quantity change conditions of the client group in a real sense.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power system business expansion and installation, in particular to a system and method for analyzing and predicting business expansion and installation based on seasonal adjustment. Background technique [0002] With the development of the economy, electricity consumption has been increasing year by year, and the business related to business expansion and installation has also increased accordingly. At the same time, the inherent advancedness and uncertainty of industry expansion equipment also put forward higher requirements for the management methods and technologies of the electricity market. In addition to grasping the trend of business expansion and installation at a macro level, it is necessary to further quantitatively analyze the release law of the installation capacity and predict the stabilized electricity. [0003] Due to the influence of seasonal factors, the time series data of reported inst...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] Although the existing technology can preliminarily calculate the proportion of electricity put into operation in each month after the industry is connected to electricity, the typical customers selected cannot represent the customer group well

[0007] Although the existing technology provides a modeling method for constructing the expanded installed capacity of the whole society and the electricity consumption of the whole society, which can predict the electricity in the next 1 to 2 periods, when the time series of the reported installed capacity shows a downward trend can't complete forecast

[0008] Since the newly installed business needs to be debugged in va

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