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A Disturbance Method for Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast

A storm-scale ensemble and disturbance method technology, applied in the field of storm-scale ensemble forecast disturbance, can solve the problems of incompatibility of storm system development, influence, and low dispersion of ensemble members, so as to improve the forecast level, increase the ensemble dispersion, improve the The effect of ensemble dispersion

Active Publication Date: 2018-09-04
南京满星数据科技有限公司
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Because the evolution of the initial error over time is significantly different in baroclinic instability and convective instability, the initial disturbance constructed by the medium-term ensemble disturbance method cannot grow rapidly in the convective system, that is, the initial disturbance structure is not consistent with the development of the storm system. On the other hand, the incompatibility between the initial disturbance of the storm scale and the scale of the side boundary disturbance will also limit the growth of the initial disturbance and the dispersion of the set
Multi-physics processes and multi-model ensembles help to improve the dispersion problem, but the precipitation forecast variables in the micro-physics scheme of the model and the threshold condition judgment of the micro-physics process are different, and have a significant impact on the precipitation intensity and fall area forecast. For different types of storm systems that occur in real time, it is blind to use a fixed set configuration to select different modes of microphysics schemes

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  • A Disturbance Method for Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast
  • A Disturbance Method for Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast
  • A Disturbance Method for Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast

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Embodiment Construction

[0040] The solution of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0041] like figure 1 The storm-scale ensemble forecast disturbance method provided in this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0042]1) Using the WRF-ARW numerical forecasting model to establish a storm-scale ensemble forecasting system with outer and inner horizontal grid spacings of 12 and 2 kilometers respectively; the analysis field for the control forecast of the system is generated by the observation data of the ECMWF high-resolution global analysis field , the boundary conditions of the ensemble members of the system are provided by the 35 km resolution ensemble forecast of the ECMWF global ensemble forecast system. Among them, WRF-ARW is Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Advanced Research WRF Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Advanced Research Edition, and ECMWF is European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

[0043]...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a storm scale ensemble forecast perturbation method. Observation data analysis, assimilation and numerical simulation are used as major measures; an ensemble forecast method is combined with severe convection weather forecast; and by aiming at the essential differences of the global medium-range ensemble forecast and the storm scale severe convection ensemble forecast, the final goal of building a storm scale ensemble forecast system which is applicable to various kinds of storm systems and constructs the perturbation scheme in a self-adaptive way according to the real-time developed severe convection system features is achieved. The method has the beneficial effects that through a variational assimilation ensemble, the ensemble perturbation realizes the physical and power harmony; the ensemble dispersion degree of the boundary layer mode variable is improved by a random physical harmony method; through self-adaptive selection on perturbation variables sensitive to the real-time developed storm system, the variable with the most obvious influence and the highest sensitivity on the storm development is selected for perturbation; high pertinence is realized; and the ensemble dispersion degree is also improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of weather forecasting, in particular to a disturbance method for storm-scale ensemble forecasting. Background technique [0002] A series of studies in the past have shown that storm-scale ensemble forecasting is feasible and effective, but the perturbation methods of various storm-scale ensemble forecasting systems still need to be perfected. For example, the storm-scale ensemble forecast system of the Center for Storm Analysis and Prediction (CAPS) in the United States can improve the forecast score by increasing the number of members and resolution, but its ensemble disturbance scheme is fixed, that is, the initial disturbance of each ensemble member adopts a fixed disturbance Amplitude, and matched with a specific physical scheme; the lateral boundary conditions of some ensemble members are provided by the short-term forecast of the NAM model, and the same lateral boundary conditions among members will ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/00G06Q10/04
Inventor 闵锦忠王世璋王勇
Owner 南京满星数据科技有限公司
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