A Disturbance Method for Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast
A storm-scale ensemble and disturbance method technology, applied in the field of storm-scale ensemble forecast disturbance, can solve the problems of incompatibility of storm system development, influence, and low dispersion of ensemble members, so as to improve the forecast level, increase the ensemble dispersion, improve the The effect of ensemble dispersion
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[0040] The solution of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
[0041] like figure 1 The storm-scale ensemble forecast disturbance method provided in this embodiment includes the following steps:
[0042]1) Using the WRF-ARW numerical forecasting model to establish a storm-scale ensemble forecasting system with outer and inner horizontal grid spacings of 12 and 2 kilometers respectively; the analysis field for the control forecast of the system is generated by the observation data of the ECMWF high-resolution global analysis field , the boundary conditions of the ensemble members of the system are provided by the 35 km resolution ensemble forecast of the ECMWF global ensemble forecast system. Among them, WRF-ARW is Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Advanced Research WRF Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Advanced Research Edition, and ECMWF is European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
[0043]...
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