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A Multi-factor Reservoir Inflow Short-Term Forecast Evaluation Method

A technology for inbound flow and short-term forecasting, which is applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical and digital data processing, etc. Forecast level, the effect of promoting overall improvement

Active Publication Date: 2017-09-26
CHINA YANGTZE POWER
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The above methods are all based on accuracy to evaluate the short-term forecast results of reservoir inflow flow. Due to the pros and cons of the short-term forecast results of reservoir inflow flow, subject to many factors, a single error evaluation method cannot reflect the level of forecasting. Therefore, it is necessary to A New Method to Objectively Evaluate Forecast Level

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  • A Multi-factor Reservoir Inflow Short-Term Forecast Evaluation Method
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  • A Multi-factor Reservoir Inflow Short-Term Forecast Evaluation Method

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Embodiment Construction

[0037] The technical solutions of the present invention will be further specifically described below through examples and in conjunction with the charts.

[0038] Step 1: Determine the standard workflow:

[0039] A brief description of the reservoir inflow flow forecasting process: Meteorological forecasters, based on the third-party rainfall numerical forecast results and combined with their own experience, make sub-regional 12-72-hour forecasts for basin precipitation. Flow forecasters, by running multiple mathematical models. The input of the mathematical model is: more than 2 real-time rainfall information, more than 2 water level information, more than 2 forecast area rainfall information, and more than 2 meteorological rainfall forecast information, and refer to their own experience to complete the flow forecast. In a special period, the production of traffic forecast needs to be discussed by many people and determined after the consent of the person in charge. See the...

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Abstract

A multi-factor short-term forecast evaluation method for reservoir inflow flow, including flow forecast steps, determining factors related to personnel, data, models, and environment in the work process; classifying various factors; based on short-term forecast error data tables and generated The data table is connected and queried; the formed data table is analyzed by principal components to find out the factors affecting the forecast; the Bayesian prior probability is used to formulate the evaluation baseline. The invention provides a multi-factor reservoir inflow short-term forecast and evaluation method, which can effectively improve the level of refinement and standardized operation of reservoir scheduling, and realize the dynamic and considerable evaluation and forecast work level.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention discloses a multi-factor reservoir inflow flow short-term forecast and evaluation method, which relates to the field of reservoir inflow flow monitoring. Background technique [0002] The short-term forecast of reservoir inflow flow refers to the prediction of the reservoir inflow flow that will occur in the future at a certain time in advance, and generally predicts the inflow flow in the next 12-72 hours. At present, the water conservancy and hydropower industry uses the two indicators of absolute error and relative error to evaluate the accuracy of operational flood forecasting. This traditional method can objectively evaluate the final product of the short-term forecast of reservoir inflow flow—the predicted flow based on time series. [0003] Due to the short-term forecasting level of reservoir inflow flow, it is affected by many factors such as the research progress of hydrology and other disciplines, the cost of surface space data...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 杨旭程建赵云发刘志武
Owner CHINA YANGTZE POWER