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Flood forecasting method of multiple forecast periods

A flood forecasting and foreseeing period technology, applied in forecasting, weather condition forecasting, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of limited length of forecasting period, low precision of hydrological forecasting, insufficient consideration of forecasting ability, etc., and achieve the effect of extending the length of forecasting period

Active Publication Date: 2016-04-20
WUHAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

Due to the timeliness of falling rain, the length of the forecast period is limited; the weather forecast data has great uncertainty, and the accuracy of hydrological forecast is low
[0006] (2) The optimized objective function is only for hydrological simulation, and the prediction ability is not considered enough
[0007] (3) Not evaluating each forecast period at the same time

Method used

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  • Flood forecasting method of multiple forecast periods
  • Flood forecasting method of multiple forecast periods
  • Flood forecasting method of multiple forecast periods

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Embodiment Construction

[0022] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Such as figure 1 As shown, a multi-period flood forecasting method includes the following steps:

[0023] 1. Collect and organize historical rain and flood data, summarize the average confluence time of the basin, and determine the length of the forecast period according to the measured average rainfall and flow process in the basin;

[0024] 2. Construct the hydrological model of the watershed, input the hydrological observation data, and do not consider the rainfall within the length of the forecast period during the forecasting process;

[0025] 3. Establish the objective function, use the optimization algorithm to identify the model parameters, for example, use the result of the genetic algorithm as the initial value, then use the Rosenbrock method to calculate, and finally use the simplex method to obtain the final result;

[0026] The optimized objective function...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a flood forecasting method of multiple forecast periods. A brand new objective function is adopted, the sum of variance of the measured values and the predicted values of multiple forecast periods acts as an optimization target to perform joint optimization. An improved hydrological model can perform flood forecasting of multiple forecast periods simultaneously so that the maximum forecast period length which can be achieved by a hydrologic model of basin in flood forecasting is explored, and thus the decision basis is provided for flood control departments at all levels. The flood forecasting method of multiple forecast periods can be widely applied to hydrologic forecasting of basin so that the forecast period length can be effectively prolonged, flood can be timely forecasted and flood loss can be reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of flood forecasting, in particular to a multi-forecast flood forecasting method. Background technique [0002] Flood forecasting refers to the use of hydrological models to predict the total amount of flood and peak flow in the future by inputting hydrological data such as rainfall and evaporation, so as to extend the forecast period as much as possible and improve the accuracy of forecasting, so as to effectively prevent floods, reduce flood losses, and more Better control and utilization of water resources to achieve the purpose of flood control and disaster reduction. [0003] The main steps of the existing flood forecasting methods are: ①collecting historical rain and flood data; ②establishing a hydrological model of the watershed; ③establishing the objective function and optimizing parameters; ④evaluating the accuracy of the optimized results to determine whether they meet the forecasting standards. ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q10/04G01W1/10Y02A10/40
Inventor 赵燕刘攀邓超
Owner WUHAN UNIV
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