Short-term wind power combined prediction method

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of wind power, and particularly relates to a short-term wind power combined prediction method. The short-term wind power combined prediction method is based on a grey system and a least square support vector machine. The short-term wind power combined prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps that original wind power data are preprocessed and grey prediction is performed so as to obtain a residual error sequence, and then the residual error sequence is predicted by using a least square support vector machine model so as to obtain a new residual error value; a kernel function is selected, and the regression parameters of the least square support vector machine are determined by using a cross validation method; after a data set is obtained, a radial basis function is selected to act as the kernel function, including width parameters and optimization parameters of quadratic programming; a combined prediction model is constructed; the data set is inputted and a prediction function is generated; and prediction error evaluation analysis is performed. Prediction accuracy and speed can be enhanced by the method.

Description

Technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of wind power, in particular to a combination forecasting method of short-term wind power. Background technique [0002] Wind Power Prediction / Wind Power Prediction WPP (WindPowerPrediction) (also called WindEnergyPrediction in some domestic professional magazines) Wind Power Prediction refers to the power prediction of wind power generators in wind farms. [0003] A wind farm uses the scientifically calculated wind turbines installed at a reasonable distance within a certain coordinate range that has passed the prediction, and the power generated by wind energy within a controllable range is used to achieve operation and power supply. [0004] Since the wind is caused by the air flow caused by the atmospheric pressure difference, the wind direction and the magnitude of the wind change all the time. Therefore, wind power has the characteristics of volatility, intermittentness and randomness. [0005] The powe...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The power fluctuations of wind farms caused by these characteristics will have an impact on the overall operation of the regional power grid, which in turn will affect the voltage stability of the entire regional power grid.

Therefore, when wind farms, especially large-capacity wind farms, are connected to the grid, it will bring certain hidden dangers to the safe and stable operation of the entire power system.

At the same time, these fluctuating, intermittent and random characteristics will also seriously affect the power generation efficiency and service life of the fan

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