Reservoir water supply safety risk evaluation method based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis

A joint probability and safety risk technology, applied in the field of reservoir water supply safety risk assessment based on joint probability analysis of inflow flow and water quality

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-05-31
BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY
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Problems solved by technology

In addition, how to give the joint probability distribution interval of inflow flow and water quality under the goal of reservoir water supply safety, so as to directly serve the regional water reso...

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  • Reservoir water supply safety risk evaluation method based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis
  • Reservoir water supply safety risk evaluation method based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis
  • Reservoir water supply safety risk evaluation method based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis

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Embodiment Construction

[0030] Combine below figure 1 , the specific embodiment of the present invention will be further described in detail. The following is used to illustrate the present invention, but not to limit the scope of the present invention.

[0031] figure 1 It is a flow chart of the present invention's risk assessment method for reservoir water supply safety based on joint probability analysis of inflow flow and water quality. Such as figure 1 Shown, the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0032]S1. Obtain multi-year data of inflow flow and water quality, use the Mann-Kendall model to analyze the trend of water quality and quantity indicators, and determine the main pollutants entering the reservoir and the typical seasons of water quantity changes.

[0033] According to the flow and water quality data of the rivers that have been in the reservoir for many years, the change analysis of the inflow flow and water quality of the reservoir is carried out. The Mann-Kendal...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir water supply safety risk evaluation method based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis. The invention relates to the field of surface water environment risk evaluation and research. The method comprises the following steps: (1) acquiring reservoir inflow water quality multi-year data, judging the change tendency of water quality and water quantity, and determining reservoir main pollutants and water change typical seasons; (2) determining edge probability distribution of the water quality and the water quantity respectively, and determining a water quality and water quantity combined probability function by adopting a Frank Copula model; (3) performing screen setting on the water quality and the water quantity of each section of the reservoir according to the surface water quality standard and a reservoir water supply quantity parameter, calculating the negative scene occurrence probability in the typical seasons by utilizing the combined probability function, and realizing risk evaluation on the reservoir water supply safety. The invention provides the method based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis, the negative scene occurrence probability is determined, risk evaluation on reservoir water supply safety is realized, and scientific basis is provided for solving the problem of reservoir water supply safety.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of reservoir water supply safety risk assessment research, in particular to a reservoir water supply safety risk assessment method based on joint probability analysis of inflow flow and water quality, which provides scientific basis for comprehensive management of reservoirs. Background technique [0002] Reservoirs, as water bodies with multiple functions such as water supply and irrigation, are closely related to human production and life. For a long time, the research on the changing trends and laws of reservoir water quality and water volume has been valued by scholars at home and abroad. Since the reservoir is greatly affected by human activities, the sources of pollution are wide, the channels are multiple, and the types are complex. The water quality and quantity of the reservoir are directly related to the water supply safety of the entire city. Reservoir water supply safety risk refers to the probability that...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG16C20/70
Inventor 张云龙王烜藏楠梁培瑜杨志峰
Owner BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY
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