Method for predicting radiation of photovoltaic power station based on all-sky nephogram

A technology for photovoltaic power plants and forecasting methods, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, climate change adaptation, etc., can solve problems such as lack of universality and poor application effect.

Active Publication Date: 2017-05-31
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +1
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Problems solved by technology

Although some literatures on photovoltaic power prediction have proposed some cloud-shielding radiation attenuation methods, they only roughly classify the relationship between clouds and radiation, and their practical application effects are not very good, and they are not universal

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  • Method for predicting radiation of photovoltaic power station based on all-sky nephogram
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  • Method for predicting radiation of photovoltaic power station based on all-sky nephogram

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Embodiment Construction

[0082] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0083] Such as figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a method for forecasting radiation of photovoltaic power plants based on whole-sky cloud images, comprising the following steps:

[0084] Step 1. Establish a clear sky radiation model according to the historical radiation data of the clear sky of the photovoltaic power plant;

[0085] Step 2. Using the cloud image of the whole sky, get the motion vector of cloud clusters with different thickne...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for predicting radiation of a photovoltaic power station based on an all-sky nephogram. The method comprises the steps of building a clear sky radiation model according to historical radiation data of clear sky of the photovoltaic power station; acquiring motion vectors and cloud form variation trends of cloud clusters with different thicknesses in a future time period by using the all-sky nephogram; acquiring the solar intensity in the cloud clusters; and building an ultra-short term radiation prediction model, and performing prediction on the radiation of the photovoltaic power station in the future time period. The method provided by the invention is accurate and effective, and can accurately predict the radiation of a future time period on the basis of ensuring predicted data output of basic weather types; accurate prediction for moving conditions of cloud clusters within a certain period of time in the future and conditions of radiation attenuation caused by shielding of various cloud clusters for the solar radiation is realized, so that the radiation of the photovoltaic power station in the future time period can be predicted accurately, accurate and effectively decision-making support is provided for power dispatching, thus the operation cost of an electric power system is reduced, and greater economic benefits and social benefits are acquired.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power forecasting, in particular to a method for forecasting radiation of photovoltaic power plants based on whole-sky cloud images. Background technique [0002] Due to the randomness and volatility of the output power of photovoltaic power generation, the connection of large-scale photovoltaic power plants to the grid in recent years has affected the security, stability and economic operation of the grid. Accurate prediction of the output power of photovoltaic power plants can provide important decision support for power dispatching, and help power dispatching departments to adjust dispatching plans in advance according to changes in photovoltaic power generation, ensure power quality, reduce system reserve capacity, and reduce power consumption. The operating cost of the system makes full use of photovoltaic resources, thereby obtaining greater economic and social benefits. [0003] Howev...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50Y02A30/00
Inventor 朱想周海崔方丁杰王知嘉程序谭志萍于炳霞丁煌陈志宝周强陈卫东居蓉蓉彭佩佩何洁琼
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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