Indeterminate information integration emergency material distribution demand prediction method
A technology for emergency supplies and demand forecasting, applied in the directions of resources, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of difficulty in obtaining emergency rescue supplies, ambiguity of disaster and material demand information, and limited information obtained, so as to reduce redundancy. Attributes, the dimensionality of attributes are reduced, and the effect of accurate judgment
Active Publication Date: 2017-08-01
NANJING UNIV OF AERONAUTICS & ASTRONAUTICS
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Problems solved by technology
[0003] However, the demand forecast for emergency rescue resources is affected by many social and environmental factors, and has a strong timeliness and phases. Limited, it is necessary to combine the forecast of resource demand distribution based on the mining of historical statistical data in the disaster area to ensure the accuracy of the forecast
Previous models lack the ability to combine historical material demand data mining rules into uncertain information fusion emergency material demand forecasts, so it is difficult to obtain accurate emergency rescue material demand
Method used
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[0052] The present invention uses the K-means example reasoning method based on feedback compensation to predict the basic flow of emergency supplies demand in disaster areas as follows: figure 1 As shown, the specific content includes the following six parts:
[0053] 1. Rough set-based attribute reduction of historical disaster examples
[0054] Let S=(C,B) be the historical disaster example database, C n is the nth example, and B is a set composed of example attributes, that is, B=F∪D. Among them, F={f 1 , f 2 ,...,f m} is the condition attribute set of the disaster example, that is, the information set of the scene characteristic factors related to the earthquake (such as total population, total area, magnitude, focal depth, highest intensity, number of victims, number of casualties, brick-concrete ratio, etc.), f m is the information of the mth disaster attribute; D={D 1 ,D 2 ,...,D i} is the decision attribute set, that is, the main emergency material demand set,...
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The invention discloses an indeterminate information integration emergency material distribution demand prediction method. The indeterminate information integration emergency material distribution demand prediction method comprises steps that basic attributes of various examples in a historical disaster database are analyzed, and the common characteristics of the examples are extracted, and are simplified by using a rough set method, and then attribute weight values are calculated according to the degrees of the influences of the various condition attributes on a material prediction result; cases are classified by using a K-means method for the feedback compensation of the simplified disaster data, and a category, to which the current case belongs, is determined according to the distances between the current case and various center points, and according to an example similarity calculation method, a historical target example having the highest similarity is searched; the material demand quantity of the current case is predicated according to the material consumption and the case attribute weight value of the target case. The rescue priority of the current case is also acquired according to the simplified case. By adopting the above mentioned method, a rescue material demand distribution prediction problem is solved, and a basis is provided for scheduling and decision making of an aviation emergency rescue command system.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a forecasting technology for emergency material demand, in particular to a multi-source information fusion method and an information rule mining method for emergency events under the uncertainty of rescue information, which provides a basis for accurately implementing emergency material dispatch and rescue. Background technique [0002] In various measures of disaster relief and handling emergencies, obtaining accurate rescue information, especially rescue material demand information, is a prerequisite for emergency coordinated dispatching decisions. At present, the demand forecast of emergency relief materials is mainly researched from the following aspects: (1) The expert experience prediction method of emergency material demand mainly uses the data and related theories of historical earthquake disaster analysis, and according to the statistical magnitude, number of deaths, number of injured, collapsed Housing and other param...
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Login to View More IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/26G06K9/62
CPCG06Q10/06315G06Q50/26G06F18/24137
Inventor 张明喻珏喻慧张一帆刘凯孔祥鲁
Owner NANJING UNIV OF AERONAUTICS & ASTRONAUTICS