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Nonlinear Runoff Probability Forecasting Method

A non-linear, runoff technology, applied in instrumentation, design optimization/simulation, calculation, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2019-06-11
WUHAN UNIV
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] There are still some problems with the existing unit lines. 1) The confluence process contains uncertainties, and the existing unit lines can still only give deterministic results
2) In the existing unit line calculation method, the unit lines calculated from different rainfall and flood data are not the same, and it is still necessary to integrate multiple unit lines into one unit line
However, the existing unit line has a unique value for the same watershed, ignoring the influence of factors such as different flood rainfall intensity, previous rainfall, and soil moisture content.

Method used

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Embodiment Construction

[0033] The specific implementation of the non-linear runoff probability forecasting method involved in the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0034]

[0035] Such as figure 1 As shown, the non-linear runoff probability forecasting method provided in this embodiment specifically includes the following steps:

[0036] Step 1: This paper selects a watershed A, assuming that the unit line function (taking the unit net rainfall as 10mm) for the time period from j to j+1 hours obeys the distribution At the same time, select the previous two-hour rainfall τ j，1 As a unit line impact factor. Establish the correlation between the influence factor of the unit line and the distribution parameters of the unit line, that is:

[0037] θ j，1 = β 1 +β 2 *τ j，1 ,

[0038] θ j，2 = β 3 ;

[0039] Step 2: According to the unit line of period j and the net rainfall in this period γ j (expressed in multiples of unit ne...

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Abstract

The invention provides a nonlinear runoff probability prediction method. The method is characterized by comprising the following steps that 1, unit lines which are generated by net rainfall within the drainage basin time frame (j, j+delta t) and submit to distribution G(.); k unit line impact factors tau j,1, tau j,2,..., tau j,k within the time frame (j, j+delta t) are selected, and a correlation H(.) between the unit line impact factors and theta j is built; 2, runoff of the net rainfall generated at the moment T within the time frame (j, j+delta t); 3, it is assumed that true runoff of the net rainfall generated at the moment T within the time frame (j, j+delta t) shows normal distribution and fluctuates vertically relative to a predicted value; it is further assumed that the true runoff, the predicted value and the impact factors tau j,1, tau j,2,..., tau j,k conform to the formula shown in the description; 4, the true runoff at the moment T is obtained; and distribution which QT meets is obtained; 5, a likelihood function of the flood is obtained according to the drainage basin, a likelihood function of multiple floods is calculated, and the maximum likelihood method is used for estimating parameters; 6, according to the obtained parameters and the runoff models built in the steps 1-4, prediction is performed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of hydrological forecasting, and in particular relates to a nonlinear runoff probability forecasting method under known net rain conditions. technical background [0002] As a widely used method of confluence, the unit line is defined as the direct runoff hydrograph formed at the outlet section of the watershed by the unit net rainfall produced by a single rainfall with uniform spatio-temporal distribution in a given watershed. Its meaning is relatively clear, and it provides a relatively simple and fast method for the confluence of river basins. [0003] There are still some problems with the existing unit lines. 1) The confluence process contains uncertainties, and the existing unit lines can still only give deterministic results. 2) In the existing unit line calculation method, the unit lines calculated from different rainfall and flood data are not the same, and it is still necessary to integrate multiple unit li...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/20Y02A10/40
Inventor 董前进张旭
Owner WUHAN UNIV
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