A day-ahead forecasting method for saving supply and load in the scope of ground survey including small hydropower

A technology of small hydropower and scope, applied in the direction of load forecasting, circuit device, AC network circuit, etc.

A technology of small hydropower and scope, applied in the direction of load forecasting, circuit device, AC network circuit, etc.

CN107769268BActive Publication Date: 2021-03-09CHINA THREE GORGES UNIV
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  • A day-ahead forecasting method for saving supply and load in the scope of ground survey including small hydropower
  • A day-ahead forecasting method for saving supply and load in the scope of ground survey including small hydropower
  • A day-ahead forecasting method for saving supply and load in the scope of ground survey including small hydropower

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[0027] Principle analysis:

[0028] Under normal circumstances, there are a small amount of small thermal power that can be regulated by prefecture-level dispatching, and its regulation ability is insufficient, so the provincial dispatching center is required to provide electric energy. Therefore, prefectural-level dispatching day-ahead load forecasting is a necessary daily work, and its significance is very important. The purpose of the present invention is to improve the accuracy of the reported provincial supply data, based on increasing the prediction accuracy of the power generation of small radial-flow hydroelectric units, and taking historical weather data and load data as references to provide more accurate provincial supply values ​​to improve economic efficiency. benefit.

[0029] The city-level dispatching structure diagram is as follows figure 1 As shown, according to the total load data of the historical load side and the corresponding weather data, etc., the tot...

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Abstract

A method of predicting provincial supply load in the scope of small hydropower surveys. According to the administrative division of counties / districts in prefecture-level cities, the capacity of run-of-the-mill units in each county / district is counted, and according to historical precipitation data, the year is divided into Wet and dry seasons. According to the divided counties / district units, the historical precipitation data are weighted. According to the local geographical environment and the impact of historical precipitation on the power generation of small hydropower units, the precipitation impact factor is obtained, and the weighted precipitation is combined with the precipitation impact factors of each county / district to obtain the final precipitation data. Sum the precipitation data of the above counties corresponding to the time period to obtain the precipitation data of a certain city in different time periods. The precipitation data is used as the input data in the BP neural network method to obtain the forecasted small hydropower generation. The historical load data is used as the training sample to obtain the regional load data. The invention aims at improving the prediction accuracy of output of radial small hydropower units, and optimizing the dispatching model of prefecture-level dispatching.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electric power system operation dispatching, and in particular relates to a method for predicting and saving supply load in the range of ground survey including small hydropower. Background technique [0002] The day-ahead load forecasting of the power grid is the premise and basis for coordinating power generation tasks, and is related to the safe and stable operation of the power system. Day-ahead power load forecasting is the basic task of power energy management and the basic condition to ensure power balance. At present, in the dispatching mode of the State Grid, prefecture-level city power supply dispatching units have to report to the provincial power supply unit the power load of the next day that the prefecture-level city power grid needs to provide from the provincial power grid. For prefecture-level power supply units That is to report "provincial supply load". However, the power sources dispatched by ...

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Application Information

Patent Timeline
09 Mar 2021
Publication
CN107769268B
IPC
H02J3/46
CPC
H02J3/46; H02J3/003; H02J2203/20
Inventors
王凌云; 孙佳星