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An Integrated Prediction Method of Pumping Well Shutdown Time Based on Time Series

A technology of time series and forecasting methods, applied in the field of petroleum production, can solve problems such as high production cost, low scientificity, low scientificity and low randomness, and achieve the effects of high accuracy, reduced impact, and improved stability

Active Publication Date: 2022-01-18
BOHAI UNIV
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Each of the above methods has certain defects. The method (1) is low in scientificity and has certain randomness; the method (2) is not scientific because it does not distinguish the actual working conditions of each well; Need to stop well operation, high production cost

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  • An Integrated Prediction Method of Pumping Well Shutdown Time Based on Time Series
  • An Integrated Prediction Method of Pumping Well Shutdown Time Based on Time Series
  • An Integrated Prediction Method of Pumping Well Shutdown Time Based on Time Series

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Embodiment

[0124] Pumping wells are the main production method in oilfield production at home and abroad. After the downhole oil is lifted out of the wellhead, if the formation pressure is not enough, the downhole liquid level cannot be restored in time. The insufficient downhole fluid supply makes the wellhead unable to continuously and normally discharge liquid, causing oil production equipment parts Running in a reactive state for a long time will aggravate the wear of sucker rods, pumps, wellbore and other equipment, resulting in high energy consumption and low efficiency. Intermittent oil production is an effective means to ensure stable production of pumping wells and reduce system energy consumption. The key issue is the accurate control of well shutdown time. Accurate prediction of well shutdown time is of great significance for rational evaluation of oil well production status, timely adjustment of swabbing parameters and production plan, etc.

[0125] This embodiment provides a...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of petroleum technology, and specifically provides a method for integrated prediction of pumping well shutdown time based on time series, comprising the following steps: 1) using historical pumping well shutdown time data sets; set{x i} carry out phase space reconstruction to obtain the time series model; 3) adopt the integrated prediction method, that is, predict the time series model of the pumping well shutdown time in a parallel manner by the ELM method, the ESN method and the LSSVM method respectively; 4 ) For the time series of pumping well shutdown time, the predicted values ​​obtained by the three methods are averaged to obtain the final result. The method proposed by the present invention can reduce the influence of reservoir condition changes, human interference, etc. on the production process of the pumping well. The principle is simple, the calculation complexity is low, and the accuracy is high, which can effectively reduce the influence of model parameter uncertainty on the prediction results .

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of petroleum production, and in particular relates to an integrated prediction method for shutting down time of pumping wells based on time series. Background technique [0002] Intermittent oil production is an effective means to ensure stable production of pumping wells and reduce system energy consumption. However, the control of downtime of pumping wells can only make intermittent Maximize production efficiency. [0003] At present, the stop time control of pumping wells mainly includes the following methods: (1) artificial interval pumping method, which manually samples and analyzes the pumped oil to determine whether to start and stop the well; (2) time-limited pumping method, manually Control, using a fixed downtime; (3) downhole dynamic liquid level monitoring method, regularly measure the downhole dynamic fluid level, and control the downhole time. [0004] Each of the above methods has certain de...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/02G06N3/08
CPCG06N3/086G06Q10/04G06Q50/02
Inventor 李琨韩莹张志强张爱华于震宿文肃
Owner BOHAI UNIV