A Medium- and Long-term Runoff Forecasting Method Based on Numerical Ensemble Forecast Extremum Correction

Abstract

The invention discloses a numerical ensemble forecast extremum correction-based medium-and-long-term runoff forecast method, and relates to the field of hydrological data processing. The method comprises the steps of determining a forecast region and a forecast time period; forecasting the forecast region of the forecast time period by adopting a numerical ensemble forecast method to obtain an average runoff forecast data conclusion alpha, which is Q_Model_Forecast; forecasting the forecast region of the forecast time period by adopting a sea temperature teleconnection method to obtain an average runoff forecast data conclusion beta, which is marked as Q_SST_Forecast; calculating an anomaly Ano of Q_SST_Forecast, and when / Ano / >=50%, using Q_SST_Forecast instead of Q_Model_Forecast to serve as a final forecast conclusion; and when / Ano / <50%, using Q_Model_Forecast to serve as the final forecast conclusion. According to the method, monthly scale runoff forecast with a forecast period ofone year can be realized; and in trend prediction and extremum prediction, the method has relatively high precision compared with the numerical ensemble forecast method or a statistical forecast method often used at present.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of hydrological data processing, in particular to a medium and long-term runoff forecasting method based on numerical ensemble forecast extreme value correction. Background technique [0002] Accurate mid- and long-term runoff forecasting can provide the future water resource status of the basin in a relatively long foreseeable period, so as to effectively guide the operation of reservoirs and other projects, and have important economic and social benefits for the comprehensive allocation and utilization of water resources in the basin. Existing medium and long-term runoff forecasting can be divided into four categories: physical cause analysis, mathematical statistics, intelligent methods and numerical forecasting methods. [0003] The physical cause analysis method is mainly to analyze the influence mechanism of atmospheric circulation, solar activity, planetary position, earth rotation and other phenomena on the fo...

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Problems solved by technology

[0007] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a medium and long-term runoff forecasting method based on numerical ensemble forecast extreme value correction, so as to solve the problem that the existing numerical ensemble forecast method is difficult to effectively forecast extreme events

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