A Method for Predicting the Conflict Probability of Motor Vehicles at Signal Controlled Intersections

Abstract

The invention discloses a signalized intersection motor vehicle collision probability predicting method. The method includes the following steps that: 1) an intersection to be researched is selected,intersection geometric information, intersection management strategies, signal timing schemes, intersection traffic flow data and vehicle related parameters are obtained; 2) the design figure of the selected intersection is evenly divided into grid units; 3) the trajectory equations of vehicle flows in entrance lanes are established, grids in a trajectory collision area are determined as researchobjects; 4) the lateral deviation and arrival probability models of vehicles in each lane are established, the probabilities that vehicles in each flow direction appear at the center points of the object grids are calculated; 5) a signal period is divided into a plurality of signal stages on the basis of the signal timing schemes and vehicle flow operation characteristics; and 6) the collision probability numerical values of all the object grids at the intersection at different stages are visually outputted with different colors. With the method of the invention adopted, collision probabilityprediction in the inner region of the signalized intersection can be solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of safety design and evaluation of urban road signalized intersections, in particular to a method for predicting the conflict probability of motor vehicles at signalized intersections considering the microscopic characteristics of entity vehicle operation. Background technique [0002] As the junction of roads, signal-controlled intersections have numerous traffic flows and complex operations. Although signal-controlled intersections have separated and divided the right-of-way traffic at the intersection through signal timing, there are still a large number of traffic conflicts, such as: crossing conflicts between straight-going and left-turning traffic, and different phase switching times. Phase traffic conflicts and various merging conflicts lead to frequent traffic accidents and reduced traffic efficiency, which greatly reduces the safety factor of intersections. [0003] At present, the research on traf...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] Most of the domestic research is based on traffic conflicts for safety evaluation and prediction, and studies on conflict points, conflict angles, and conflict probability models, but most of the models are too simple and do not consider the signal timing scheme, queuing traffic flow, and the arrival of subsequent traffic flows The law and the influence of the traffic flow of each entrance lane on the conflict probability

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