Human reliability equilibrium method for deep water riser system risk maintenance decision optimization

Abstract

The invention discloses a human reliability equilibrium method for deep water riser system risk maintenance decision optimization. The method includes taking a deep water platform SCR segment as a risk maintenance decision unit; selecting the maintenance decision unit to perform risk identification; performing unit transient failure probability analysis while performing failure probability analysis of overload stress fracture under the action of extreme environmental loads, failure probability analysis of overload fatigue fracture under the action of extreme environmental loads and failure probability analysis of external corrosion on the upper segment; performing risk analysis according to unit failure consequence assessment; back-calculating unit maintenance periods; and performing groupmaintenance strategy optimization based on the human reliability equilibrium method. The beneficial effects of the method are that maintenance grouping can be carried out on the units arranged according to the maintenance periods to realize the optimization of the riser risk maintenance strategies by taking the sum of three human error probabilities and the comparison of the maximum acceptable human error probability as the judging criteria of the maintenance grouping.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of deep-sea exploration, and relates to a human-factor reliability balance method for risk maintenance decision optimization of a deep-water riser system. Background technique [0002] Deep sea platform steel catenary riser (abbreviated as SCR—Steel Catenary Riser), as an important component connecting submarine oil and gas resources and sea surface oil and gas storage and transportation devices, is one of the most severe service environments for deep sea platform devices. Environmental loads with a large degree of time-varying and uncertainties, such as deep-sea internal waves, deformed waves, typhoons and typhoon waves, will become important factors that threaten the safe operation of risers. At the same time, the high-temperature and high-pressure oil and gas and other working medium loads inside the SCR of the deep-sea platform also have a great destructive effect on the riser. Under the action of these...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, there are many risk factors affecting the destruction and failure of deep-sea platform SCR during operation, and they are random and fuzzy, which makes it difficult to accurately evaluate the safety of deep-sea platform SCR system by using conventional methods such as model tests or numerical simulations.

The traditional safety assessment method represented by reliability analysis has been unable to adapt to the deep-sea platform SCR due to the neglect of the potential failure risk of the deep-sea platform SCR system and the inability to measure the impact of the potential risk into an actual disaster accident. System security assessment requirements

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