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Storm surge forecasting method

A technology of storm surge and average wind speed, which is applied in weather condition forecasting, meteorology, measuring devices, etc., can solve the problem of inability to effectively predict the occurrence time of storm surge, water increase, storm surge, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2018-11-02
祁超祯
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a storm surge forecasting method to solve the existing problem that the water increase of storm surge and the occurrence time of storm surge cannot be effectively predicted

Method used

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Embodiment 1

[0023] A storm surge forecasting method, including storm surge water increase forecast and storm surge occurrence time forecast, wherein:

[0024] The forecast of storm surge water increase includes: S11, collecting meteorological monitoring stations that exceed h in year Y 0 The tidal water level data and corresponding, the wind speed data of the windward side of the meteorological monitoring station; S12, establish the storm surge water increase database including the windward maximum wind speed, period average wind speed, and storm surge water increase of the meteorological monitoring station;

[0025] The storm surge time forecast includes: S21, collecting the data of the time of occurrence of the high tide level of the astronomical tide and the data of the time of occurrence of the storm surge at the above-mentioned meteorological monitoring stations; database.

Embodiment 2

[0027] In specific implementation, Y≥30, h 0 ≥2m.

[0028] Usually, the weather monitoring station is arranged in the bay, and the windward side of the weather monitoring station faces away from the weather monitoring station and faces the coast forming the bay.

[0029] In specific implementation, the period average wind speed is a period within 5 hours.

[0030] In specific implementation, the maximum wind speed is replaced by the maximum hourly wind speed.

Embodiment 3

[0032] From the storm surge increase database, the storm surge increase is detected by the maximum wind speed → the average wind speed of the period → the storm surge increase.

[0033] Use the astronomical tide table or cycle method to calculate the astronomical tide and find out that the time when the astronomical high tide appears is T 0 , apply the method of mathematical statistics to calculate T after the high tide of astronomical tide 1 When a storm surge occurs in hours, then the time of occurrence of the storm surge is T 0 +T 1 .

[0034] Take the southeast coast of Bohai Bay as an example below to describe the principle of the present invention in detail:

[0035] The southeast coast of Bohai Bay refers to the coast from Qikou in Hebei Province to the mouth of the Laohuang River in Shandong Province. The terrain in this area is high in the southwest and low in the northeast. , the slope is 1 / 10000~1 / 20000. There is no obvious coastline in this section of the coas...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a storm surge forecasting method, which comprises the steps of storm surge water increase forecast and storm surge occurrence time forecast. The storm surge water increase forecast is implemented by the steps of: collecting tidal water level data exceeding h0 in Y years of a meteorological monitoring station and corresponding wind speed data of a windward side of the meteorological monitoring station; and establishing a storm surge water increase database comprising windward maximum wind speed, average wind speed per time intervavl and storm surge water increase of themeteorological monitoring station. The storm surge occurrence time forecast is implemented by the steps of: collecting occurrence time data of an astronomic tide high tide level and occurrence time data of a storm surge of the meteorological monitoring station; and establishing a storm surge occurrence time database comprising astronomic tide high tide occurrence time and storm surge occurrence time. The storm surge forecasting method has the beneficial effects of being capable of forecasting water increase and occurrence time of a storm surge 24 h or longer in advance, providing guidance forcountermeasures before the storm surge arrives, and having good economic and social benefits.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of natural disaster forecasting, in particular to a storm surge forecasting method. Background technique [0002] Storm surge is a marine disaster that occurs along the coast. It is an abnormal rise in sea level caused by strong atmospheric disturbances such as tropical cyclones (typhoons, hurricanes) and extratropical cyclones. The storm surges on the southeast coast of Bohai Bay are mainly extratropical cyclone storm surges, followed by typhoon storm surges, and have the following characteristics: Storm surges occur frequently. According to the analysis, storm surges on the southeast coast of Bohai Bay occur once every 7.6 years on average; Strong seasonality, storm surges mostly occur in spring and autumn, accounting for about 80% of storm surges; accompanied by storms, almost all of the 52 recorded storm surges occurred with storms, of which northeast gale was the most. [0003] Therefore, the water inc...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10
CPCG01W1/10Y02A10/40
Inventor 张含明祁超祯
Owner 祁超祯
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