Medium and long-term load curve generation method for satisfying electricity quantity constraint

Abstract

A medium and long-term load curve generation method for satisfying an electricity quantity constraint comprises the steps of reading an annual maximum load, an annual total electricity quantity, typical daily load curves in summer and winter, monthly load characteristics and 8,760 hours of historical load data into a program, and organizing the 8,760 hours of historical load data by the month; calculating a daily maximum load in a prediction year with the obtained 8,760 hours of historical load data organized by the month as original data, and then obtaining a time-sequence load curve of the prediction year according to a conservation of charge as a principle; and finally, calculating to form an accurate continuous load curve and a sectional continuous load curve on a 168-hour cycle. According to the medium and long-term load curve generation method for satisfying the electricity quantity constraint, typical daily load curve characteristics and monthly load characteristics are fully considered in the switching of the time sequence load curve and the continuous load curve, shape characteristics of the load curves are guaranteed to satisfy the requirement on the premise of the electricity quantity constraint; and the load tendency and the change characteristics can be described and depicted more comprehensively, and a foundation is laid for establishment of an optimized planningmodel of an electric power system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electric power system planning, and relates to a method for generating medium and long-term load curves satisfying power constraints. Background technique [0002] As the foundation of power generation planning, load forecasting is the most important thing for the safe and stable operation of the power system. Medium and long-term load forecasting refers to monthly, seasonal and annual load curve forecasting, which is the basis for power planning, design and investment in power systems. The annual load curve was first compiled by a group of monthly maximum loads in December of the year, but at present the power sector requires the annual load curve to be compiled with daily maximum loads or even hourly loads. The forecast mainly includes electricity consumption, maximum load, load Characteristic indicators, typical daily time series, continuous load curve prediction, etc. [0003] Compared with the short-term dai...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In summary, the forecast generation of medium and long-term load curves is a key issue in the field of power system planning, and plays a fundamental role i

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