A risk hedging decision-making method of reservoir flood resource utilization considering the influence of forecast uncertainty

Abstract

The invention discloses a risk hedging decision-making method for reservoir flood resource utilization considering the influence of forecast uncertainty. The method comprises the following steps: dividing a flood control stage and a profit-making stage according to the relative magnitude relationship between forecast incoming water and water demand, and counting two-stage forecast error parameterconditions; defining flood control risk in flood control phase and water shortage risk in water supply phase; establishing a two-stage risk hedging model for reservoir flood resources utilization; under the given input condition of model parameters, deducing the analytical rules of reservoir storage capacity with intermediate variable of flood control and water supply conversion by using the first-order optimality condition; outputting the function diagram of flood resource utilization risk hedging analytical rule and the result of dispatching objective function under different incoming waterconditions. The method quantifies the two-stage risk characterization mode of flood control and water supply, can analyze the functional relationship between each main influencing factor and the storage capacity, can reduce the sum of the risk losses of flood control and water shortage, and can comprehensively coordinate the objective contradiction of flood control and profit promotion in reservoir flood season dispatching.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a decision-making method for the utilization and scheduling of reservoir flood resources in the field of water conservancy engineering, in particular to a decision-making method for hedging the utilization risk of reservoir flood resources considering the influence of forecast uncertainty. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the rapid development of economy and society, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has become increasingly prominent, and the shortage of water resources in some areas has become the main constraint factor for the sustainable development of society and economy. Affected by the monsoon, the annual and interannual distribution of the runoff of some major rivers varies greatly, and they need to be adjusted and stored by reservoirs to be fully utilized. Reservoirs, as the most important type of water resource allocation project, often have both flood control and runoff ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] Existing research and practice overemphasize the economic loss of flood control disasters and weaken the economic loss of water supply shortages, and lack of analysis and discussion on the hedging and replacement relationship between the two

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