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Improved travel time reliability analysis method

A technology of travel time and analysis method, which is applied in the traffic control system of road vehicles, traffic flow detection, instruments, etc., can solve the problem that the real value data of travel time is difficult to obtain, and achieve a comprehensive effect of description

Active Publication Date: 2019-04-16
JIANGSU ZHITONG TRANSPORTATION TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In order to solve this problem, the object of the present invention is to provide an improved travel time reliability analysis method to solve the problem of how to evaluate the accuracy of travel time reliability estimation in the prior art because it is difficult to obtain the true value data of travel time

Method used

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Embodiment

[0033] An improved travel time reliability analysis method, such as figure 1 , including the following steps,

[0034] S1. Construct a road section travel time estimation model, based on the parameter detection data output by the upstream and downstream traffic flow detectors of the road section, estimate the travel time TT of the vehicle leaving the road section at any given moment ti ti .

[0035] S2. Collect travel time data to reduce the impact of traffic flow parameter volatility on reliability; the collection strategy is: TT agg (t α )=F(TT t1 ,...,TT ti ,...,TT tN ), where F(*) is the median function, TT agg (t α ) is the aggregated value of travel time, TT ti is the travel time of the vehicle leaving at time ti on the road segment.

[0036]S3. Carry out subset division to the estimated travel time data samples comprising different months and seasons, generate S subsets, and use the K-S test method modified by Bonferroni to carry out a statistical test on wheth...

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Abstract

The invention provides an improved travel time reliability analysis method. On the basis of the traditional travel time reliability index estimation, a Bonferroni-modified K-S detection method is usedto check whether seasonal and monthly differences exist in the travel time; lognormal distribution is used to fit the distribution of the travel time, and the maximum expectation algorithm is used for parameter calibration; a Bootstrap method is adopted to perform sampling with replacement on travel time estimation samples; M rounds of repeated sampling are carried out; the travel time reliability index TTRm for each data subset is calculated; and a TTR meeting normal distribution is subjected to point estimation and interval estimation. The method outputs a reliability index estimation interval, in comparison with a reliability index point estimation value, the description of the travel time reliability by the confidence interval is more comprehensive, and an interval upper limit value has more practical significance in application of guidance release, traffic planning and so on.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an improved analysis method of travel time reliability. Background technique [0002] Among many road evaluation indicators, travel time is widely used to evaluate highways, urban roads and residents' travel efficiency. In the past two decades, many mathematical models have been used to improve the accuracy of travel time. But travel time cannot accurately describe the characteristics of residents' travel and road traffic. Travel time reliability is proposed as a supplement to travel time, and it plays an important role in assisting public travel and traffic planning, control and decision-making, mainly in the following aspects: (1) serving as an important indicator of travel mode and travel route selection for travelers; (2) It can be used as a road grade management index; (3) It can be used as a reference index for macro-regional traffic planning. [0003] Commonly used travel time reliability indicators are mainly based o...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01
CPCG08G1/0104G08G1/0125G08G1/0129
Inventor 吕伟韬杨树陈凝李璐
Owner JIANGSU ZHITONG TRANSPORTATION TECH
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