An underground early warning method based on a hidden Markov model

A hidden Markov and model technology, applied in the field of downhole early warning based on the hidden Markov model, can solve the problems of prediction errors and large prediction errors, and achieve the goal of improving the comprehensiveness, solving the prediction error problem and improving the prediction accuracy. Effect

Active Publication Date: 2019-06-18
SOUTHWEST PETROLEUM UNIV
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The disadvantage is that different situations may occur in different climates, different places, and dif

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  • An underground early warning method based on a hidden Markov model
  • An underground early warning method based on a hidden Markov model
  • An underground early warning method based on a hidden Markov model

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[0033] The specific embodiments of the present invention are described below so that those skilled in the art can understand the present invention, but it should be clear that the present invention is not limited to the scope of the specific embodiments. For those of ordinary skill in the art, as long as various changes Within the spirit and scope of the present invention defined and determined by the appended claims, these changes are obvious, and all inventions and creations using the concept of the present invention are included in the protection list.

[0034] Such as figure 1 As shown, the downhole early warning method based on hidden Markov model includes the following steps:

[0035] S1. Obtain the real data generated during the historical drilling process and use it as the initial sample data;

[0036] S2. Randomly select the data of a certain time period in the real data of the initial sample data, and predict the data of the next time period according to the auto-re...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an underground early warning method based on a hidden Markov model. The underground early warning method comprises the following steps: S1, obtaining initial sample data; S2, predicting data of a next time period; S3, selecting real data and bringing the real data into an accident candidate set; S4, acquiring a real accident state corresponding to the real data in each timeperiod; S5, obtaining a real accident state sequence corresponding to the initial sample data; S6, establishing an initial early warning model by adopting the hidden Markov model, and training the initial early warning model to obtain a trained early warning model; And S7, obtaining data generated by the target drilling well in real time, taking the data as input of a post-training early warningmodel, and carrying out real-time early warning through the post-training early warning model. According to the method, the comprehensiveness of underground prediction can be effectively improved, sothat the prediction result is more accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of downhole early warning, in particular to a downhole early warning method based on a hidden Markov model. Background technique [0002] The work of using mechanical equipment or manpower to drill the formation into holes from the ground is called drilling. Usually refers to the exploration or development of liquid and gaseous minerals such as oil and natural gas to drill boreholes and large-diameter water supply wells. Drilling is widely used in national economic construction. [0003] There are very few systems for predicting occurrences of accidents based on drilling anomalies. Existing accident prediction methods usually calculate the wellbore energy by calculating the expected tortuosity of the wellbore, calculate the first value through planning, and compare the first value with a predetermined threshold to achieve the prediction effect. The disadvantage is that only the tortuosity of the wellbore is used as...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/18G06K9/62
Inventor 陈雁葛忆李平钟原代臻童兴格黄嘉鑫谢静郑津钟学燕刘影
Owner SOUTHWEST PETROLEUM UNIV
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