Electric power market malicious bidding behavior identification method
A technology of electricity market and identification method, which is applied in business, instruments, complex mathematical operations, etc., can solve problems such as disrupting market economic behavior, high transaction default rate, unfavorable power market construction and development, etc., to improve market health and optimize The effect of the operating mechanism
Active Publication Date: 2019-08-20
STATE GRID TIANJIN ELECTRIC POWER +1
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Problems solved by technology
However, in the centralized electricity trading market, due to the information asymmetry in the market, some market players rely on their own market control to maliciously declare market quotations that are significantly higher or lower than the cost in order to obtain illegal benefits, seriously disrupting market economic behavior. , correspondingly brings a higher transaction default rate, which is not conducive to the construction and development of the electricity market
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Embodiment 1
[0032] In this embodiment, the transferor is used as the market participant for illustration;
[0033] figure 1 A flow chart of the steps of the method for identifying malicious bidding behavior in the electricity market provided by the embodiment of the present invention;
[0034] This embodiment takes the electricity market transaction data of a provincial electricity trading center in March as the research object, and analyzes the market bidding behavior of relevant participants. A total of 56 transferors participated in this power market transaction, and the total declared power was 329.61 million kWh. Part of the declared data is shown in Table 1 below.
[0035] Table 1 Partial data of electricity market transactions in a provincial electricity trading center in March
[0036]
[0037]
[0038] Calculate the average value P and standard deviation σ of all quotation data of 56 sellers through formulas (1) and (2):
[0039]
[0040]
[0041] In the formula: ...
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The invention relates to an electric power market malicious bidding behavior identification method comprising the following steps: S1, collecting electric quantity declared by each market participantof an electric power transaction center, declared electricity price data and historical clearing price, and writing the electric quantity, the declared electricity price data and the historical clearing price into a database; taking the current declared electricity price data of the participation subject as an analysis and identification object; s2, calculating an average value and a standard deviation sigma of all quotation data; s3, according to a confidence probability theory of normal distribution, determining a reasonable offer interval of the offers as S4, according to the confidence probability interval, judging the reasonability of the declared electricity price of each offer, and screening out all the offers who may maliciously offer; s5, calculating the deviation amplitude between the current quotation and the historical quotation mean value according to the possible malicious quotation yielding party screened in the step S4, and determining a malicious quotation subject. Inthe declaration stage, the abnormal quotation behavior can be recognized in time according to the declaration electricity price, early warning is sent out, the market health degree is improved, and the power market operation mechanism is optimized.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electric power market bidding identification, and in particular relates to a method for identifying malicious bidding behaviors in the electric power market. Background technique [0002] In the electricity market environment, carrying out strategic bidding is one of the important decision-making behaviors of market participants. Each market participant bids strategically to the power trading center to maximize its own value. In power matching transactions, scientific and reasonable bidding behavior is an important means to improve market vitality and optimize resource allocation. Under normal circumstances, power generation companies (transferors) will determine their own declared electricity prices based on their own historical power generation costs, comprehensively considering the power supply and demand situation and profit targets; power consuming companies (transferees) will comprehensively conside...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q30/00G06Q50/06G06F17/18
CPCG06Q30/0185G06Q50/06G06F17/18
Inventor 徐玉杰翟树军张凯楠吕岳袁海洲胡本哲杨霞
Owner STATE GRID TIANJIN ELECTRIC POWER
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