Energy system optimization method considering economic growth

Abstract

The invention discloses an energy system optimization method considering economic growth. The method comprises the following steps: setting reference scenes of regional economy, energy and environmentsystems; establishing an energy economy dynamic calculable general equilibrium model; calculating the economic added value of each industry in the future level year; predicting future energy servicerequirements, taking the future energy service requirements as exogenous variables for energy system optimization, and establishing an energy system optimization model by taking the minimum total costof the energy system as a target; solving the energy system optimization model, and feeding back a result to the regional energy economy dynamic calculable general equalization model for loop iteration until the model converges. According to the invention, the dynamic influence and feedback mechanism of the energy system and the economic system are comprehensively considered; based on a regionalenergy economy dynamic calculable general equilibrium model and an energy system optimization model, two-way and dynamic association between the two models is realized through an iterative solution algorithm, and the proposed optimization method can obtain the minimum total cost of the energy system under the condition of considering economic growth.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of energy system optimization, in particular to an energy system optimization method considering economic growth. Background technique [0002] From the perspective of existing modeling methods, there are three main types of models that describe energy technology and energy economy in detail: top-down, bottom-up, and hybrid models. The top-down model describes the relationship between energy-economy-environment at the macro level, but lacks a detailed description of energy technology; the bottom-up model is based on energy technology, and develops various energy production and consumption technologies. Analysis and prediction of scale and technology costs, but lack of connection with the economic system; the hybrid model uses the complementary relationship between the top-down model and the bottom-up model to establish a soft connection between the two types of models to achieve the interaction of key inform...

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Problems solved by technology

The top-down model describes the relationship between energy-economy-environment at the macro level, but lacks a detailed description of energy technology; the bottom-up model is based on energy technology, and develops various energy production and consumption technologies. Analysis and prediction of scale and technology costs, but lack of connection with the economic system; the hybrid model uses the complementary relationship between the top-down model and the bottom-up model to establish a soft connection between the two types of models to achieve the interaction of key information

[0003] However, in the existing hybrid model, the economic system and the energy system are often one-way and statically related, and the dynamic impact and feedback mechanism of the energy system and the economic system cannot be considered. Therefore, it is difficult to reflect the impact of the energy system configuration plan on economic growth.

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