Monthly electricity consumption prediction analysis method for agent user of small electricity selling company
A predictive analysis and power consumption technology, applied in the field of power grid automation control, can solve problems such as insufficient power consumption forecasting technology
Pending Publication Date: 2021-05-11
NANJING HUADUN ELECTRIC POWER INFORMATION SAFETY EVALUATION CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology
[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, to provide a small-scale electricity sales company agent user monthly power consumption prediction analysis method, to solve the problem of insufficient existing power consumption prediction technology
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[0080] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Following examples are only used to illustrate technical scheme of the present invention more clearly, and can not limit protection scope of the present invention with this.
[0081] Such as figure 1 As shown in Fig. 1, a method for forecasting and analyzing monthly power consumption of a small electricity sales company as an agent user includes the following steps:
[0082] Step 1. Record the proxy user group of the electricity sales company as C, collect the actual electricity consumption of user group C last year and the previous year, and calculate the standard deviation of each user’s annual actual electricity consumption. The standard deviation data is used to calculate the correlation. If the correlation is greater than 0.97, the following monthly power consumption forecast analysis will be carried out.
[0083] Specifically, user A 1 The standard deviation of ...
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The invention discloses a monthly electricity consumption prediction analysis method for an agent user of a small electricity selling company. The method comprises the following steps: marking an agent user group of the electricity selling company as C, and dividing the agent user group into user groups C1, C2 and C3 according to types; for the user group C1,calculating predicted electricity quantity of the next month by using a method for acquiring a production plan of the next month through field investigation; for the user group C2, calculating predicted electricity quantity of the next month through PMI; for the user group C3, calculating the correlation between the actual electricity consumption of each month of the last year and the actual electricity consumption of the same period of the year before last year, and the correlation between the actual electricity consumption of each month of the last year and the actual electricity consumption of the month before last month; and taking the electricity consumption value with highest correlation as the predicted electricity consumption of the next month. The monthly electricity consumption prediction of the agent user group C is the sum of the predicted electricity quantities of the user groups C1, C2 and C3 in the next month. According to the method, the problem of disadvantages of power consumption prediction technologies in the prior art is solved.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid automation regulation, and in particular relates to a method for predicting and analyzing monthly power consumption of a small electricity sales company as an agent user. Background technique [0002] On March 15, 2015, a new round of power reform kicked off. The core content of this round of power reform is the reform of power generation plan, transmission and distribution price, power sales side, power market construction, and power trading institutions. With the establishment and improvement of the electricity market mechanism as the main goal, in accordance with the institutional framework of controlling the middle and releasing the two ends, orderly release the electricity price of competitive links other than transmission and distribution, orderly release the power distribution and sales business to social capital, and orderly release Power generation and consumption plans other than publi...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q30/02G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q30/0202G06Q10/06315G06Q50/06Y02P90/82
Inventor 刘子良李鹏余泽鑫戴登慧
Owner NANJING HUADUN ELECTRIC POWER INFORMATION SAFETY EVALUATION CO LTD