Marine environmental element statistical prediction method based on space-time experience orthogonal function

Abstract

The invention provides a marine environmental element statistical prediction method based on a space-time experience orthogonal function, and the method comprises the steps: constructing a day-by-day marine dynamic environmental element space-time sample matrix over the years of a to-be-analyzed space based on the reanalysis data of a to-be-analyzed and predicted sea area; performing multi-time scale analysis on the space-time sample matrix by using a wavelet packet decomposition method to obtain space-time sample matrixes of different time scales; performing spatio-temporal empirical function decomposition on the spatio-temporal sample matrixes of different time scales, and respectively constructing orthogonal spatio-temporal bases corresponding to different time scales; adopting an orthogonal space-time base to construct a space-time statistical prediction model oriented to ocean dynamic environment elements; and performing reconstruction by using the medium-and-long-term space-time analysis prediction results of different time scales to obtain the medium-and-long-term space-time analysis prediction results of the ocean dynamic environment elements of the to-be-analyzed space. The invention develops a medium and long term statistical prediction model of the ocean dynamic environment elements based on a space-time experience orthogonal function, and the analysis and prediction capability of the ocean dynamic environment elements is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the prediction technology of marine dynamic environment elements, and especially designs a medium- and long-term statistical prediction method for marine dynamic environment elements based on Spatiotemporal Empirical Orthogonal Function (STEOF) decomposition. The method of the present invention is mainly applied to the analysis and forecasting of marine dynamic environment elements during the voyage period of ships, underwater / surface unmanned submersibles, offshore engineering and other platforms. Three-month medium and long-term analysis and forecast. Background technique [0002] Marine forecasting is not only a way to ensure national coastal defense security, maintain public social order and stability, provide reference information for the government to make decisions about protection, development and utilization of the marine environment, and improve the efficiency of marine operations and personal and property saf...

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Problems solved by technology

At present, the research on numerical forecasting by major institutions around the world has matured, but the extended period and medium- and long-term forecasting cannot be completed by traditional numerical forecasting methods, but statistical forecasting methods need to be considered to achieve

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