Short-term wind power prediction method based on wind speed correction and fusion model

Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term wind power prediction method based on a wind speed correction and fusion model, and the method comprises the steps of: carrying out cleaning processing of wind power data, which comprises the historical forecast wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity, air pressure, air density, actual wind speed, and actual power of a prediction point; taking the historical forecast wind speed as the input of a wind speed correction model, taking the actual wind speed as a correction target, and inputting the wind speeds the wind speed correction model for correction to obtain the corrected forecast wind speed; inputting the corrected forecast wind speed into the fusion model, and training the fusion model; and correcting the predicted wind speed of the prediction point by using the wind speed correction model, and inputting multi-dimensional data obtained by combining other meteorological factors and the corrected predicted wind speed of the prediction point into the fusion model for wind power prediction to obtain a prediction result. The method can effectively improve the precision of wind power prediction by using NWP data, and can be used for power system scheduling.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power prediction methods, and relates to a short-term wind power prediction method based on wind speed correction and fusion models. Background technique [0002] Short-term wind power uses historical wind power data or NWP meteorological data to predict wind power power, generally using time series method and artificial intelligence method. Existing forecasting methods use historical actual wind speeds for forecasting, but in actual forecasting, the actual future wind speeds are unknown, so this forecasting method has poor practical applicability. Using NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) forecast data for prediction is more in line with the actual situation, but the accuracy of NWP forecast data still needs to be improved. There is a deviation between the NWP forecast wind speed and the actual wind speed of the wind farm, which will lead to poor forecast results. In addition, the traditional single...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a short-term wind power prediction method based on wind speed correction and fusion model, which solves the problem of poor prediction accuracy in the prior art

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