Toll road operation period toll vehicle model traffic volume prediction method and device
A forecasting method and technology of highway traffic, applied in traffic flow detection, traffic control system of road vehicles, forecasting, etc., can solve problems such as poor traffic volume expectation, long operation period, and investment risk must be controlled, and achieve strong reliability. , the effect of high prediction accuracy
Active Publication Date: 2021-11-02
CHINA RAILWAY FIFTH SURVEY & DESIGN INST GRP
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Problems solved by technology
The project has a "user-pays" basis and is highly attractive to social capital. However, the operation period is long, and the traffic volume is expected to be poor, especially in underdeveloped areas. Investment risks must be controlled
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[0033] In order to more clearly understand the above objects, features and advantages of the present disclosure, the present disclosure will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It can be understood that the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present disclosure, rather than all embodiments, and the specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the present disclosure, rather than limit the present disclosure. Where there is no conflict, In some cases, the embodiments of the present disclosure and the features in the embodiments can be combined with each other. All other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art based on the described embodiments of the present disclosure belong to the protection scope of the present disclosure.
[0034] In the following description, many specific details are set forth in order to fully understand the present disclosure, but the...
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The invention relates to a toll road operation period toll vehicle model traffic volume prediction method and device, and the method comprises the steps: predicting the vehicle model composition proportion of a toll road to be predicted in an operation characteristic year according to the vehicle model composition proportion of an investigation year and a preset rule through determining a prediction age limit and the operation characteristic year; according to the vehicle model composition proportion and a preset highway traffic toll vehicle model and investigation vehicle model conversion rule, determining the toll vehicle model proportion of the toll road to be predicted in the operation characteristic year; according to the toll vehicle model proportion of the toll road to be predicted in the operation characteristic year, determining the traffic volume of each toll vehicle model of the toll road to be predicted in the operation characteristic year; and determining the traffic volume of each toll vehicle type of the toll road to be predicted in the operation period according to the traffic volume of the same toll vehicle type of the toll road to be predicted in two adjacent operation characteristic years and the preset conversion coefficient corresponding to each toll vehicle type, thereby realizing the traffic volume prediction of the toll road in the operation period, and being high in prediction result reliability, and prediction precision is high.
Description
technical field [0001] The present disclosure relates to the technical field of highway engineering, and relates to forecasting traffic volume of commercial toll roads, and in particular to a method and device for forecasting traffic volume of toll-charging vehicles during the operation period of toll roads. Background technique [0002] Toll roads usually adopt the "BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer)" PPP (Public Private Partnership) mode of operation, and introduce road project investment, construction, and operation through open bidding or competitive negotiation. "Comprehensive Service Provider". The project has a "user-pays" basis and is highly attractive to social capital. However, the operation period is long, and the traffic volume is expected to be poor, especially in underdeveloped areas. Investment risks must be controlled. [0003] Therefore, scientific and accurate traffic volume forecasting during the operation period of commercial toll road projects is very importa...
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IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01G07B15/06G06Q50/30G06Q10/04
CPCG08G1/0125G08G1/0129G07B15/06G06Q10/04G06Q50/40
Inventor 张伟
Owner CHINA RAILWAY FIFTH SURVEY & DESIGN INST GRP