Power distribution network long-term load prediction method considering power grid service flow and control flow constraint

Abstract

The invention discloses a power distribution network long-term load prediction method considering power grid service flow and control flow constraints, and relates to the technical field of power distribution network load prediction, the method comprises steps of constructing an MGM_BC (1, N) prediction model according to influence factors, and influencing a prediction value of a load according to the MGM_BC (1, N) prediction model; generating a background value sequence according to the low-voltage governance service flow of the power grid enterprise, performing dynamic correction on the MGM_BC (1, N) prediction model according to the background value sequence, and performing load prediction through the corrected MGM_BC (1, N) prediction model to obtain a prediction result; correcting the prediction result according to the low-voltage governance control flow of the power grid enterprise, so that the prediction result is closer to the actual situation, the power distribution network load prediction result is closer to the development expectation of a region, the investment and construction of the power distribution network are more accurate, the problems of insufficient power supply capacity, overlong power supply radius, low voltage and the like in the power distribution network are effectively reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of distribution network load forecasting, and in particular relates to a long-term load forecasting method of a distribution network considering the constraints of network business flow and control flow. Background technique [0002] The distribution network is an important part of the construction of the smart grid, and it is also an indispensable and important link to promote the development of urban and rural areas in the region. However, due to the mismatch between regional distribution network load development and planning forecast, it often leads to voltage quality problems at the end of the distribution network, which directly affects the reliable operation of power supply equipment. In the stage of planning and construction of intelligent distribution network, strengthening the load forecasting ability of distribution network is of great significance to improve the voltage quality of distribution net...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The amount of sample data required by these methods is small, and the prediction is simple, but the prediction accuracy often cannot meet the expected requirements of distribution network planning and construction.

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