Natural gas pipeline network gas supply reliability detection method and device based on cross entropy theory

Abstract

The invention discloses a natural gas pipeline network gas supply reliability detection method and device based on a cross entropy theory. The method comprises the steps of acquiring user demand prediction and user grading results according to demand side analysis of a target natural gas pipeline network, performing reliability evaluation on a preset area of the target natural gas pipeline network according to the historical failure database to obtain input data of system state transition simulation, according to the input data, simulating the state transition process of the target natural gas pipeline network through a time sequence Monte Carlo method based on cross entropy to obtain a time sequence state transition sequence, acquiring the gas supply amount of the target natural gas pipeline network after state transition according to the gas consumption characteristics of the users contained in all the demand points and the time sequence state transition sequence calculation result, and obtaining gas supply reliability detection data of the target natural gas pipeline network according to the user demand prediction result and the gas supply amount analysis.

Description

Technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of natural gas pipeline maintenance, and it is particularly referred to as a gas supply reliability detection method and apparatus for gas pipe network based on cross entropy theory. Background technique [0002] The random process simulation of the system running state and the supply capacity calculation in various operating conditions are the key to the reliability research of gas pipeline network. The sequential Monte Carlo simulation is a simulation of system state transfer in system reliability evaluation due to systematic reliability index of system reliability. However, the natural gas pipeline network huge state space, time-variable nonlinear operating state change and large time lag, non-linear system characteristics, determines the traditional sequential Monte Carlo method to solve the gas supply reliability of natural gas pipe network Speed ​​bottleneck. For the gas supply capacity of the pipe network, t...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the huge state space of the natural gas pipeline network, the time-varying and nonlinear operating state changes, and the large time-delay and nonlinear system characteristics determine that the traditional sequential Monte Carlo method has problems in solving the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline network. speed bottleneck

For the calculation of the gas supply volume of the pipeline network, the maximum flow method, steady-state hydraulic simulation and offline hydraulic database are mainly used, but all of them do not fully consider the fluctuation characteristics of natural gas demand and the impact of user importance.

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